Oct. 10th 2025

QQQ sees worst day in 6 months

Market Signal+5 MODERATE BULLISH

On Friday, the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) was trading at all-time highs before closing down -3.47% - its worst day since Thurs. Apr. 10th 2025.

TQQQ fell -10.49%. TQQQ lost $11.38, shedding 20% of it's value from day πŸ“ˆ1 of current uptrend (see cumulative return graph).

Friday was objectively a bad day - just a few other days in the trailing year have seen QQQ fall by 3% or more:

Including today, QQQ has fallen by more than 3% only 6 times in the trailing year

The last time QQQ fell by 3% or more during an uptrend was almost a year ago on Wed. Dec. 18th 2024.


QQQ dropped all the way to the bottom of the range mentioned the past two weeks.


The uptrend is technically ongoing as the Market Signal remains positive, but it has greatly weakened and potentially at-risk.

This uptrend is the longest on record since Raincheck Fund's inception. It has seen astonishing gains (TQQQ +91.79% at peak).

All of this amid broader economic uncertainty, including third consecutive month of bad jobs data:

Private payrolls saw their biggest decline in 2Β½ years during September, a further sign of labor market weakening that compounds the data blackout accompanying the U.S. government shutdown.

NASDAQ-100 52-week highs

The following NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) holdings closed at a 52-week high today:

  • MNST $69.62 +0.85%

πŸ“ˆ113th day of uptrend

Day πŸ“ˆ1 of current uptrend occurred on Thurs. May 1st 2025.

  • QQQ +22.38% since start of current uptrend
  • TQQQ +70.99% since start of current uptrend
A B C D E F G
1
Market Signal Trend Count QQQ Close QQQ %chg since πŸ“ˆ1 TQQQ close TQQQ %chg since πŸ“ˆ1 Date
2
2 πŸ“ˆ1 $481.68 0.00% $56.77 0.00% Thu 5/1/25
3
2 πŸ“ˆ2 $488.83 1.48% $59.43 4.69% Fri 5/2/25
4
2 πŸ“ˆ3 $485.93 0.88% $58.40 2.87% Mon 5/5/25
5
2 πŸ“ˆ4 $481.41 -0.06% $56.74 -0.05% Tue 5/6/25
6
2 πŸ“ˆ5 $483.30 0.34% $57.40 1.11% Wed 5/7/25
7
2 πŸ“ˆ6 $488.29 1.37% $59.11 4.12% Thu 5/8/25
8
2 πŸ“ˆ7 $487.97 1.31% $58.97 3.88% Fri 5/9/25
9
3 πŸ“ˆ8 $507.85 5.43% $66.11 16.45% Mon 5/12/25
10
3 πŸ“ˆ9 $515.59 7.04% $69.14 21.79% Tue 5/13/25
11
3 πŸ“ˆ10 $518.68 7.68% $70.36 23.94% Wed 5/14/25
12
3 πŸ“ˆ11 $519.25 7.80% $70.58 24.33% Thu 5/15/25
13
3 πŸ“ˆ12 $521.51 8.27% $71.45 25.86% Fri 5/16/25
14
3 πŸ“ˆ13 $522.01 8.37% $71.64 26.19% Mon 5/19/25
15
3 πŸ“ˆ14 $520.27 8.01% $70.89 24.87% Tue 5/20/25
16
3 πŸ“ˆ15 $513.04 6.51% $67.94 19.68% Wed 5/21/25
17
2 πŸ“ˆ16 $514.00 6.71% $68.29 20.29% Thu 5/22/25
18
2 πŸ“ˆ17 $509.24 5.72% $66.32 16.82% Fri 5/23/25
19
4 πŸ“ˆ18 $521.22 8.21% $70.94 24.96% Tue 5/27/25
20
3 πŸ“ˆ19 $518.91 7.73% $70.03 23.36% Wed 5/28/25
21
3 πŸ“ˆ20 $519.93 7.94% $70.37 23.96% Thu 5/29/25
22
3 πŸ“ˆ21 $519.11 7.77% $70.00 23.30% Fri 5/30/25
23
4 πŸ“ˆ22 $523.21 8.62% $71.61 26.14% Mon 6/2/25
24
4 πŸ“ˆ23 $527.30 9.47% $73.28 29.08% Tue 6/3/25
25
3 πŸ“ˆ24 $528.77 9.78% $73.87 30.12% Wed 6/4/25
26
3 πŸ“ˆ25 $524.79 8.95% $72.15 27.09% Thu 6/5/25
27
4 πŸ“ˆ26 $529.92 10.01% $74.21 30.72% Fri 6/6/25
28
3 πŸ“ˆ27 $530.70 10.18% $74.54 31.30% Mon 6/9/25
29
3 πŸ“ˆ28 $534.21 10.91% $75.98 33.84% Tue 6/10/25
30
3 πŸ“ˆ29 $532.41 10.53% $75.20 32.46% Wed 6/11/25
31
3 πŸ“ˆ30 $533.66 10.79% $75.69 33.33% Thu 6/12/25
32
2 πŸ“ˆ31 $526.96 9.40% $72.83 28.29% Fri 6/13/25
33
3 πŸ“ˆ32 $534.29 10.92% $75.80 33.52% Mon 6/16/25
34
2 πŸ“ˆ33 $529.08 9.84% $73.56 29.58% Tue 6/17/25
35
2 πŸ“ˆ34 $528.99 9.82% $73.46 29.40% Wed 6/18/25
36
2 πŸ“ˆ35 $526.83 9.37% $72.45 27.62% Fri 6/20/25
37
7 πŸ“ˆ36 $531.65 10.37% $74.70 31.58% Mon 6/23/25
38
7 πŸ“ˆ37 $539.78 12.06% $78.10 37.57% Tue 6/24/25
39
7 πŸ“ˆ38 $541.16 12.35% $78.48 38.24% Wed 6/25/25
40
8 πŸ“ˆ39 $546.22 13.40% $80.63 42.03% Thu 6/26/25
41
7 πŸ“ˆ40 $548.09 13.79% $81.42 43.42% Fri 6/27/25
42
8 πŸ“ˆ41 $551.64 14.52% $83.00 46.20% Mon 6/30/25
43
7 πŸ“ˆ42 $546.99 13.56% $80.89 42.49% Tue 7/1/25
44
7 πŸ“ˆ43 $550.80 14.35% $82.50 45.32% Wed 7/2/25
45
8 πŸ“ˆ44 $556.22 15.48% $84.81 49.39% Thu 7/3/25
46
7 πŸ“ˆ45 $552.03 14.61% $82.92 46.06% Mon 7/7/25
47
7 πŸ“ˆ46 $552.34 14.67% $83.03 46.26% Tue 7/8/25
48
7 πŸ“ˆ47 $556.25 15.48% $84.75 49.29% Wed 7/9/25
49
7 πŸ“ˆ48 $555.45 15.32% $84.36 48.60% Thu 7/10/25
50
7 πŸ“ˆ49 $554.20 15.06% $83.72 47.47% Fri 7/11/25
51
7 πŸ“ˆ50 $556.21 15.47% $84.61 49.04% Mon 7/14/25
52
7 πŸ“ˆ51 $556.72 15.58% $84.83 49.43% Tue 7/15/25
53
7 πŸ“ˆ52 $557.29 15.70% $85.07 49.85% Wed 7/16/25
54
7 πŸ“ˆ53 $561.80 16.63% $87.05 53.34% Thu 7/17/25
55
7 πŸ“ˆ54 $561.26 16.52% $86.75 52.81% Fri 7/18/25
56
7 πŸ“ˆ55 $564.17 17.13% $88.07 55.13% Mon 7/21/25
57
7 πŸ“ˆ56 $561.25 16.52% $86.70 52.72% Tue 7/22/25
58
7 πŸ“ˆ57 $563.81 17.05% $87.84 54.73% Wed 7/23/25
59
7 πŸ“ˆ58 $565.01 17.30% $88.42 55.75% Thu 7/24/25
60
7 πŸ“ˆ59 $566.37 17.58% $88.92 56.63% Fri 7/25/25
61
7 πŸ“ˆ60 $568.14 17.95% $89.79 58.16% Mon 7/28/25
62
7 πŸ“ˆ61 $567.26 17.77% $89.38 57.44% Tue 7/29/25
63
7 πŸ“ˆ62 $568.02 17.92% $89.69 57.99% Wed 7/30/25
64
6 πŸ“ˆ63 $565.01 17.30% $88.21 55.38% Thu 7/31/25
65
5 πŸ“ˆ64 $553.88 14.99% $82.92 46.06% Fri 8/1/25
66
7 πŸ“ˆ65 $564.10 17.11% $87.46 54.06% Mon 8/4/25
67
6 πŸ“ˆ66 $560.27 16.32% $85.64 50.85% Tue 8/5/25
68
7 πŸ“ˆ67 $567.32 17.78% $88.84 56.49% Wed 8/6/25
69
7 πŸ“ˆ68 $569.24 18.18% $89.74 58.08% Thu 8/7/25
70
7 πŸ“ˆ69 $574.55 19.28% $92.16 62.34% Fri 8/8/25
71
7 πŸ“ˆ70 $572.85 18.93% $91.35 60.91% Mon 8/11/25
72
7 πŸ“ˆ71 $580.05 20.42% $94.72 66.85% Tue 8/12/25
73
7 πŸ“ˆ72 $580.34 20.48% $94.86 67.10% Wed 8/13/25
74
7 πŸ“ˆ73 $579.89 20.39% $94.60 66.64% Thu 8/14/25
75
7 πŸ“ˆ74 $577.34 19.86% $93.26 64.28% Fri 8/15/25
76
7 πŸ“ˆ75 $577.11 19.81% $93.14 64.07% Mon 8/18/25
77
6 πŸ“ˆ76 $569.28 18.19% $89.34 57.37% Tue 8/19/25
78
5 πŸ“ˆ77 $565.90 17.48% $87.71 54.50% Wed 8/20/25
79
5 πŸ“ˆ78 $563.28 16.94% $86.49 52.35% Thu 8/21/25
80
6 πŸ“ˆ79 $571.97 18.74% $90.38 59.20% Fri 8/22/25
81
6 πŸ“ˆ80 $570.32 18.40% $89.59 57.81% Mon 8/25/25
82
6 πŸ“ˆ81 $572.61 18.88% $90.63 59.64% Tue 8/26/25
83
7 πŸ“ˆ82 $573.49 19.06% $91.04 60.37% Wed 8/27/25
84
7 πŸ“ˆ83 $577.08 19.81% $92.70 63.29% Thu 8/28/25
85
5 πŸ“ˆ84 $570.40 18.42% $89.36 57.41% Fri 8/29/25
86
5 πŸ“ˆ85 $565.62 17.43% $87.08 53.39% Tue 9/2/25
87
6.5 πŸ“ˆ86 $570.07 18.35% $89.11 56.97% Wed 9/3/25
88
7 πŸ“ˆ87 $575.23 19.42% $91.52 61.21% Thu 9/4/25
89
7 πŸ“ˆ88 $576.06 19.59% $91.82 61.74% Fri 9/5/25
90
7 πŸ“ˆ89 $578.87 20.18% $93.13 64.05% Mon 9/8/25
91
7 πŸ“ˆ90 $580.51 20.52% $93.89 65.39% Tue 9/9/25
92
7 πŸ“ˆ91 $580.70 20.56% $93.99 65.56% Wed 9/10/25
93
7 πŸ“ˆ92 $584.08 21.26% $95.57 68.35% Thu 9/11/25
94
7 πŸ“ˆ93 $586.66 21.79% $96.76 70.44% Fri 9/12/25
95
7 πŸ“ˆ94 $591.68 22.84% $99.23 74.79% Mon 9/15/25
96
7 πŸ“ˆ95 $591.18 22.73% $98.96 74.32% Tue 9/16/25
97
7 πŸ“ˆ96 $590.00 22.49% $98.33 73.21% Wed 9/17/25
98
7 πŸ“ˆ97 $595.32 23.59% $100.98 77.88% Thu 9/18/25
99
7 πŸ“ˆ98 $599.35 24.43% $102.98 81.40% Fri 9/19/25
100
7 πŸ“ˆ99 $602.20 25.02% $104.72 84.46% Mon 9/22/25
101
7 πŸ“ˆ100 $598.20 24.19% $102.61 80.75% Tue 9/23/25
102
7 πŸ“ˆ101 $596.10 23.75% $101.41 78.63% Wed 9/24/25
103
6 πŸ“ˆ102 $593.53 23.22% $100.05 76.24% Thu 9/25/25
104
7 πŸ“ˆ103 $595.97 23.73% $101.25 78.35% Fri 9/26/25
105
7 πŸ“ˆ104 $598.73 24.30% $102.60 80.73% Mon 9/29/25
106
7 πŸ“ˆ105 $600.37 24.64% $103.40 82.14% Tue 9/30/25
107
7 πŸ“ˆ106 $603.25 25.24% $104.86 84.71% Wed 10/1/25
108
8 πŸ“ˆ107 $605.73 25.75% $106.14 86.96% Thu 10/2/25
109
7 πŸ“ˆ108 $603.18 25.22% $104.70 84.43% Fri 10/3/25
110
8 πŸ“ˆ109 $607.71 26.16% $107.04 88.55% Mon 10/6/25
111
7 πŸ“ˆ110 $604.51 25.50% $105.31 85.50% Tue 10/7/25
112
8 πŸ“ˆ111 $611.44 26.94% $108.88 91.79% Wed 10/8/25
113
7 πŸ“ˆ112 $610.70 26.79% $108.45 91.03% Thu 10/9/25
114
5 πŸ“ˆ113 $589.50 22.38% $97.07 70.99% Fri 10/10/25

Market Signal, Trend Count, closing prices, and cumulative return (%) over current uptrend


TQQQ vs QQQ Holdings

Despite the big hit on Friday, TQQQ is still outperforming 94% of QQQ holdings since day πŸ“ˆ1 of current uptrend (Thurs. May 1st 2025), including all of the Magnificent 7.

There is just a 6 in 100 or 6% chance of having picked QQQ holdings that performed TQQQ between day πŸ“ˆ1 of the current uptrend and now.

A B C D E
1
Market Cap Symbol %Chg since πŸ“ˆ1 Close on πŸ“ˆ1 Close
2
379,756 M QQQ 22.38% $481.68 $589.50
3
203,840 M MU 133.51% $77.77 $181.60
4
348,749 M AMD 122.35% $96.65 $214.90
5
192,765 M APP 103.90% $279.49 $569.89
6
42,336 M WBD 102.85% $8.43 $17.10
7
165,662 M LRCX 83.15% $71.73 $131.37
8
173,020 M INTC 82.03% $19.98 $36.37
9
25,714 M TQQQ 70.99% $56.77 $97.07
10
1,533,021 M AVGO 64.51% $197.33 $324.63
11
4,459,397 M NVDA 64.11% $111.61 $183.16
12
196,275 M SHOP 55.67% $97.01 $151.02
13
115,118 M CEG 53.15% $240.62 $368.49
14
416,204 M PLTR 50.98% $116.20 $175.44
15
55,360 M DDOG 49.30% $106.32 $158.74
16
1,374,917 M TSLA 47.40% $280.52 $413.49
17
2,861,078 M GOOGL 46.66% $161.30 $236.57
18
2,872,204 M GOOG 45.89% $162.79 $237.49
19
129,413 M KLAC 45.31% $676.31 $982.75
20
167,255 M AMAT 40.94% $148.96 $209.95
21
73,804 M MRVL 40.46% $60.95 $85.61
22
363,380 M ASML 40.42% $666.72 $936.19
23
49,874 M EA 37.85% $145.10 $200.02
24
49,054 M ZS 36.47% $227.06 $309.88
25
113,642 M DASH 35.59% $196.20 $266.02
26
163,985 M ARM 34.15% $115.40 $154.81
27
32,602 M MCHP 31.38% $45.98 $60.41
28
49,295 M IDXX 30.71% $471.38 $616.15
29
66,163 M CSX 26.25% $28.11 $35.49
30
44,404 M BKR 24.45% $36.19 $45.04
31
1,771,813 M META 23.26% $572.21 $705.30
32
379,756 M QQQ 22.38% $481.68 $589.50
33
21,489 M BIIB 21.20% $120.93 $146.57
34
3,798,051 M MSFT 20.11% $425.40 $510.96
35
262,087 M AZN 19.88% $70.51 $84.53
36
176,419 M PDD 17.27% $105.97 $124.27
37
67,979 M MNST 16.97% $59.52 $69.62
38
268,580 M CSCO 16.90% $58.12 $67.94
39
110,847 M ADI 16.30% $193.74 $225.32
40
18,706 M ON 15.51% $39.60 $45.74
41
3,639,902 M AAPL 14.98% $213.32 $245.27
42
47,864 M XEL 14.96% $70.40 $80.93
43
123,887 M CRWD 14.30% $431.88 $493.66
44
2,307,567 M AMZN 13.76% $190.20 $216.37
45
165,724 M QCOM 13.59% $135.21 $153.59
46
145,398 M GILD 13.49% $103.25 $117.18
47
52,539 M FAST 13.44% $40.35 $45.78
48
55,191 M AXON 13.19% $621.10 $703.03
49
51,777 M NXPI 12.94% $181.84 $205.37
50
205,210 M PEP 12.38% $133.55 $150.08
51
141,161 M PANW 11.96% $186.27 $208.55
52
64,646 M ADSK 10.97% $273.49 $303.50
53
89,104 M CDNS 9.10% $299.73 $327.00
54
86,674 M ORLY 8.85% $93.85 $102.15
55
62,592 M AEP 8.83% $107.54 $117.04
56
156,099 M TXN 8.49% $158.26 $171.70
57
518,444 M NFLX 7.64% $1,133.47 $1,220.08
58
46,481 M TTWO 7.14% $235.17 $251.97
59
66,724 M PYPL 6.77% $65.41 $69.84
60
70,633 M MAR 6.66% $243.95 $260.20
61
48,039 M ROST 6.32% $138.93 $147.71
62
32,420 M GEHC 4.94% $67.67 $71.01
63
40,476 M FANG 3.70% $134.83 $139.82
64
48,835 M PCAR 3.59% $89.78 $93.00
65
178,934 M INTU 2.98% $623.19 $641.79
66
156,195 M AMGN 2.24% $283.78 $290.13
67
212,801 M LIN 1.29% $448.05 $453.82
68
167,395 M BKNG 1.24% $5,101.43 $5,164.93
69
47,540 M EXC 1.01% $46.60 $47.07
70
32,019 M CSGP -1.31% $76.58 $75.58
71
25,601 M TTD -1.32% $53.06 $52.36
72
39,801 M CCEP -1.83% $89.54 $87.90
73
59,844 M REGN -4.30% $590.00 $564.63
74
89,185 M SBUX -4.33% $82.01 $78.46
75
81,529 M SNPS -4.45% $459.36 $438.92
76
115,527 M ADP -4.52% $298.69 $285.19
77
127,557 M HON -4.66% $210.74 $200.91
78
72,360 M ABNB -4.69% $124.01 $118.19
79
62,259 M WDAY -5.45% $246.61 $233.18
80
18,292 M GFS -6.31% $35.18 $32.96
81
412,161 M COST -6.91% $999.04 $930.01
82
108,171 M MELI -7.01% $2,294.52 $2,133.67
83
25,537 M DXCM -7.32% $70.26 $65.12
84
257,485 M TMUS -7.37% $247.00 $228.79
85
54,775 M ROP -8.71% $557.59 $509.00
86
79,513 M MDLZ -9.46% $67.87 $61.45
87
141,282 M ADBE -9.91% $374.63 $337.51
88
75,535 M CTAS -10.30% $209.55 $187.96
89
19,009 M CDW -10.69% $162.40 $145.04
90
28,228 M ODFL -10.79% $150.56 $134.31
91
29,768 M KHC -11.75% $28.50 $25.15
92
32,136 M CTSH -12.53% $75.23 $65.80
93
108,772 M CMCSA -12.89% $33.82 $29.46
94
45,185 M PAYX -14.36% $146.61 $125.55
95
153,998 M ISRG -16.94% $517.18 $429.59
96
33,959 M VRSK -17.47% $294.51 $243.06
97
104,554 M VRTX -18.26% $498.86 $407.79
98
68,243 M TRI -18.48% $185.74 $151.42
99
87,508 M MSTR -20.13% $381.60 $304.79
100
63,631 M FTNT -20.31% $104.21 $83.04
101
35,075 M KDP -24.15% $34.04 $25.82
102
42,464 M CPRT -27.47% $60.50 $43.88
103
35,444 M CHTR -32.25% $383.00 $259.49
104
37,923 M TEAM -36.89% $229.07 $144.56
105
19,864 M LULU -37.64% $268.60 $167.51

Assuming 3% for the risk-free rate, the Sharpe Ratio for this investment is 2.99.


If you entered a TQQQ position when the Market Signal indicated an uptrend (day πŸ“ˆ1 of current uptrend Thurs. May 1st 2025), and held til now - more than half the days since then offered to close the position a return greater than +50%.

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