About
Raincheck Fund is an algorithmic market sentiment tool focused on TQQQ, the triple-leveraged (+3x) ETF for the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ).
Market Signal
Our Market Signal is an algorithm that evaluates statistical trends in price movement of QQQ to determine whether QQQ is currently in an uptrend (📈) or downtrend (📉).
Every day after market close, our Market Signal algorithm returns a numerical market sentiment value, ranging from -9 (most bearish) to +9 (most bullish), with 0 being a neutral score.
📈 Uptrends
QQQ is considered to be in an uptrend during consecutive days of positive Market Signal values
- values in range
+1to+3are a NEUTRAL to WEAK BULLISH indication 📈 - values in range
+4to+6are a MODERATE BULLISH indication 📈📈 - values in range
+7to+9are a STRONG BULLISH indication 📈📈📈
📉 Downtrends
QQQ is considered to be in a downtrend during consecutive days of negative Market Signal values
- values in range
-1to-3are a NEUTRAL to WEAK BEARISH indication 📉 - values in range
-4to-6are a MODERATE BEARISH indication 📉📉 - values in range
-7to-9are a STRONG BEARISH indication 📉📉📉
Raincheck Fund's strategy seeks to profit by capitalizing on how the market is currently behaving, as opposed to predicting what it will do next. Investments are made based on the strength and direction of the Market Signal:
- Long
TQQQduring uptrends - In cash (or
SQQQ) during downtrends
While managing risk and taking profit remains up to the investor, this approach has turned a profit and avoided significant downtrends since 2016. Historical data is available since Nov. 2, 2023.
Example
The following table contains the Market Signal, trend count, closing prices, and returns for QQQ and TQQQ during the 55 day uptrend from Mon. May 6 2024 through Thu. July 25 2024.
The uptrend's peak occurred on Wed. July 10 2024 - TQQQ closed at $84.93, a +45.03% gain since the trend started.
The Market Signal turned negative on Thu. July 25 2024, concluding the uptrend, and indicating to entirely exit long TQQQ positions (see above 'in cash during downtrends'). Buying and holding TQQQ for the duration of the uptrend returned +8.04%.
| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
Market Signal | Trend Count | QQQ Close | QQQ %chg since 📈1 | TQQQ close | TQQQ %chg since 📈1 | Date |
|
2
|
1 | 📈1 | $440.25 | 0.00% | $58.56 | 0.00% | Mon 5/6/24 |
|
3
|
3 | 📈2 | $440.32 | 0.02% | $58.56 | 0.00% | Tue 5/7/24 |
|
4
|
3 | 📈3 | $440.06 | -0.04% | $58.45 | -0.19% | Wed 5/8/24 |
|
5
|
3 | 📈4 | $441.02 | 0.17% | $58.77 | 0.36% | Thu 5/9/24 |
|
6
|
7 | 📈5 | $442.06 | 0.41% | $59.17 | 1.04% | Fri 5/10/24 |
|
7
|
7 | 📈6 | $443.08 | 0.64% | $59.56 | 1.71% | Mon 5/13/24 |
|
8
|
7 | 📈7 | $445.93 | 1.29% | $60.67 | 3.60% | Tue 5/14/24 |
|
9
|
8 | 📈8 | $452.90 | 2.87% | $63.47 | 8.38% | Wed 5/15/24 |
|
10
|
7 | 📈9 | $451.98 | 2.66% | $63.08 | 7.72% | Thu 5/16/24 |
|
11
|
7 | 📈10 | $451.76 | 2.61% | $62.94 | 7.48% | Fri 5/17/24 |
|
12
|
8 | 📈11 | $454.91 | 3.33% | $64.24 | 9.70% | Mon 5/20/24 |
|
13
|
8 | 📈12 | $455.80 | 3.53% | $64.57 | 10.26% | Tue 5/21/24 |
|
14
|
8 | 📈13 | $455.71 | 3.51% | $64.53 | 10.19% | Wed 5/22/24 |
|
15
|
7 | 📈14 | $453.66 | 3.05% | $63.57 | 8.56% | Thu 5/23/24 |
|
16
|
7 | 📈15 | $457.95 | 4.02% | $65.35 | 11.59% | Fri 5/24/24 |
|
17
|
7 | 📈16 | $459.68 | 4.41% | $66.06 | 12.81% | Tue 5/28/24 |
|
18
|
7 | 📈17 | $456.44 | 3.68% | $64.68 | 10.45% | Wed 5/29/24 |
|
19
|
6 | 📈18 | $451.55 | 2.57% | $62.60 | 6.90% | Thu 5/30/24 |
|
20
|
6 | 📈19 | $450.71 | 2.38% | $62.53 | 6.78% | Fri 5/31/24 |
|
21
|
6 | 📈20 | $453.13 | 2.93% | $63.14 | 7.82% | Mon 6/3/24 |
|
22
|
6 | 📈21 | $454.37 | 3.21% | $63.61 | 8.62% | Tue 6/4/24 |
|
23
|
8 | 📈22 | $463.53 | 5.29% | $67.45 | 15.18% | Wed 6/5/24 |
|
24
|
7 | 📈23 | $463.25 | 5.22% | $67.37 | 15.04% | Thu 6/6/24 |
|
25
|
7 | 📈24 | $462.96 | 5.16% | $67.12 | 14.62% | Fri 6/7/24 |
|
26
|
8 | 📈25 | $464.83 | 5.58% | $67.83 | 15.83% | Mon 6/10/24 |
|
27
|
8 | 📈26 | $468.02 | 6.31% | $69.23 | 18.22% | Tue 6/11/24 |
|
28
|
8 | 📈27 | $474.15 | 7.70% | $71.96 | 22.88% | Wed 6/12/24 |
|
29
|
7 | 📈28 | $476.72 | 8.28% | $73.11 | 24.85% | Thu 6/13/24 |
|
30
|
7 | 📈29 | $479.19 | 8.84% | $74.17 | 26.66% | Fri 6/14/24 |
|
31
|
8 | 📈30 | $485.06 | 10.18% | $76.86 | 31.25% | Mon 6/17/24 |
|
32
|
8 | 📈31 | $485.21 | 10.21% | $76.90 | 31.32% | Tue 6/18/24 |
|
33
|
7 | 📈32 | $481.47 | 9.36% | $75.09 | 28.23% | Thu 6/20/24 |
|
34
|
7 | 📈33 | $480.18 | 9.07% | $74.40 | 27.05% | Fri 6/21/24 |
|
35
|
6 | 📈34 | $473.96 | 7.66% | $71.88 | 22.75% | Mon 6/24/24 |
|
36
|
7 | 📈35 | $479.68 | 8.96% | $74.28 | 26.84% | Tue 6/25/24 |
|
37
|
7 | 📈36 | $480.47 | 9.14% | $74.46 | 27.15% | Wed 6/26/24 |
|
38
|
7 | 📈37 | $481.61 | 9.39% | $75.00 | 28.07% | Thu 6/27/24 |
|
39
|
7 | 📈38 | $479.11 | 8.83% | $73.82 | 26.06% | Fri 6/28/24 |
|
40
|
7 | 📈39 | $481.92 | 9.47% | $75.03 | 28.13% | Mon 7/1/24 |
|
41
|
7 | 📈40 | $486.98 | 10.61% | $77.33 | 32.05% | Tue 7/2/24 |
|
42
|
7 | 📈41 | $491.04 | 11.54% | $79.23 | 35.30% | Wed 7/3/24 |
|
43
|
8 | 📈42 | $496.16 | 12.70% | $81.63 | 39.40% | Fri 7/5/24 |
|
44
|
7 | 📈43 | $497.34 | 12.97% | $82.17 | 40.32% | Mon 7/8/24 |
|
45
|
7 | 📈44 | $497.77 | 13.07% | $82.35 | 40.63% | Tue 7/9/24 |
|
46
|
8 | 📈45 | $502.96 | 14.24% | $84.93 | 45.03% | Wed 7/10/24 |
|
47
|
7 | 📈46 | $491.93 | 11.74% | $79.35 | 35.50% | Thu 7/11/24 |
|
48
|
7 | 📈47 | $494.82 | 12.40% | $80.64 | 37.70% | Fri 7/12/24 |
|
49
|
7 | 📈48 | $496.15 | 12.70% | $81.24 | 38.73% | Mon 7/15/24 |
|
50
|
8 | 📈49 | $496.34 | 12.74% | $81.30 | 38.83% | Tue 7/16/24 |
|
51
|
6 | 📈50 | $481.77 | 9.43% | $74.15 | 38.83% | Wed 7/17/24 |
|
52
|
5 | 📈51 | $479.49 | 8.91% | $73.04 | 24.73% | Thu 7/18/24 |
|
53
|
5 | 📈52 | $475.24 | 7.95% | $71.06 | 21.35% | Fri 7/19/24 |
|
54
|
5 | 📈53 | $482.32 | 9.56% | $74.16 | 26.64% | Mon 7/22/24 |
|
55
|
5 | 📈54 | $480.62 | 9.17% | $73.36 | 25.27% | Tue 7/23/24 |
|
56
|
4 | 📈55 | $463.38 | 5.25% | $65.45 | 11.77% | Wed 7/24/24 |
|
57
|
-2 | 📉1 | $458.27 | 4.09% | $63.27 | 8.04% | Thu 7/25/24 |
For a TQQQ position opened after market close on the first day of the uptrend, and held until the Market Signal went negative, the the following exit opportunities occurred:
- Only 1 day with negative cumulative return
- 39 days (or 69.64% of the uptrend) having cumulative return greater than +10%
- 11 days with
TQQQclosing between+10%and+20%gain - 15 days with
TQQQclosing between+20%and+30%gain - 13 days with
TQQQclosing over+30%gain
- 11 days with