Feb. 28th 2025: 📉43 day downtrend, SQQQ +68.69% gain at peak
SQQQ during downtrends and outperform the market.At the peak of this downtrend, Raincheck Fund's strategy was outperforming
QQQ by +86.82%Returns
The downtrend began on Fri. Feb. 28 2025 and ended on Thurs. May 1 2025, after 43 consecutive days of negative Market Signal values.
The histogram below shows the exit opportunities for an SQQQ position opened on day 📉1 of the downtrend, based on closing prices for each of the 43 days comprising the downtrend.
- The last 3 days of the downtrend were the only days the position was in the red, and 2 of these days were a cumulative loss of just ~1%
- During most of the downtrend, the position's return was between +10% and +20% profit
- There were 5 days when the position's return was greater than +30%, and 3 days it was greater than +50%
As of Fri. Apr 4 2025 (day 📉26 of downtrend), an SQQQ position would be up +60.38%. Assuming 3% for the risk-free rate, the Sharpe Ratio for this investment is 5.08.
At this point in time, SQQQ was outperforming 100% of QQQ holdings since day 📉1 of the downtrend (Feb. 28th 2025). Other than MSTR, SQQQ was outperforming all other QQQ holdings by more than 10x over the same timeframe.
The downtrend peaked 2 days later on Tues. Apr. 8th 2025. SQQQ was up +68.69% since day 📉1 of the downtrend, while QQQ was down -18.13%; an +86.82% outperformance.
The table below contains the Market Signal, Trend Count, closing prices, and cumulative return (%) over the downtrend.
| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
Market Signal | Trend Count | QQQ Close | QQQ %chg since 📉1 | SQQQ close | SQQQ %chg since 📉1 | Date |
|
2
|
-2 | 📉1 | $508.17 | 0.00% | $31.40 | 0.00% | Fri 2/28/25 |
|
3
|
-3 | 📉2 | $497.05 | -2.19% | $33.43 | 6.46% | Mon 3/3/25 |
|
4
|
-3 | 📉3 | $495.55 | -2.48% | $33.81 | 7.68% | Tue 3/4/25 |
|
5
|
-3 | 📉4 | $502.01 | -1.21% | $32.51 | 3.54% | Wed 3/5/25 |
|
6
|
-3 | 📉5 | $488.20 | -3.93% | $35.17 | 12.01% | Thu 3/6/25 |
|
7
|
-3 | 📉6 | $491.79 | -3.22% | $34.47 | 9.78% | Fri 3/7/25 |
|
8
|
-3 | 📉7 | $472.73 | -6.97% | $38.37 | 22.20% | Mon 3/10/25 |
|
9
|
-3 | 📉8 | $471.60 | -7.20% | $38.80 | 23.57% | Tue 3/11/25 |
|
10
|
-3 | 📉9 | $476.92 | -6.15% | $37.49 | 19.39% | Wed 3/12/25 |
|
11
|
-3 | 📉10 | $468.34 | -7.84% | $39.54 | 25.92% | Thu 3/13/25 |
|
12
|
-3 | 📉11 | $479.66 | -5.61% | $36.73 | 16.97% | Fri 3/14/25 |
|
13
|
-3 | 📉12 | $482.77 | -5.00% | $36.02 | 14.71% | Mon 3/17/25 |
|
14
|
-3 | 📉13 | $474.54 | -6.62% | $37.84 | 20.51% | Tue 3/18/25 |
|
15
|
-2 | 📉14 | $480.89 | -5.37% | $36.40 | 15.92% | Wed 3/19/25 |
|
16
|
-2 | 📉15 | $479.26 | -5.69% | $36.75 | 17.04% | Thu 3/20/25 |
|
17
|
-2 | 📉16 | $480.84 | -5.38% | $36.40 | 15.92% | Fri 3/21/25 |
|
18
|
-2 | 📉17 | $490.66 | -3.45% | $34.13 | 8.69% | Mon 3/24/25 |
|
19
|
-2 | 📉18 | $493.46 | -2.89% | $33.52 | 6.75% | Tue 3/25/25 |
|
20
|
-2 | 📉19 | $484.38 | -4.68% | $34.86 | 11.02% | Wed 3/26/25 |
|
21
|
-3 | 📉20 | $481.62 | -5.22% | $35.47 | 12.96% | Thu 3/27/25 |
|
22
|
-3 | 📉21 | $468.94 | -7.72% | $38.30 | 21.97% | Fri 3/28/25 |
|
23
|
-7 | 📉22 | $468.92 | -7.72% | $38.34 | 22.10% | Mon 3/31/25 |
|
24
|
-7 | 📉23 | $472.70 | -6.98% | $37.44 | 19.24% | Tue 4/1/25 |
|
25
|
-7 | 📉24 | $476.15 | -6.30% | $36.60 | 16.56% | Wed 4/2/25 |
|
26
|
-8 | 📉25 | $450.66 | -11.32% | $42.53 | 35.45% | Thu 4/3/25 |
|
27
|
-8 | 📉26 | $422.67 | -16.83% | $50.36 | 60.38% | Fri 4/4/25 |
|
28
|
-8 | 📉27 | $423.69 | -16.62% | $50.17 | 59.78% | Mon 4/7/25 |
|
29
|
-8 | 📉28 | $416.06 | -18.13% | $52.97 | 68.69% | Tue 4/8/25 |
|
30
|
-6 | 📉29 | $466.00 | -8.30% | $34.28 | 9.17% | Wed 4/9/25 |
|
31
|
-7 | 📉30 | $446.18 | -12.20% | $38.21 | 21.69% | Thu 4/10/25 |
|
32
|
-6 | 📉31 | $454.40 | -10.58% | $36.22 | 15.35% | Fri 4/11/25 |
|
33
|
-6 | 📉32 | $457.48 | -9.98% | $35.45 | 12.90% | Mon 4/14/25 |
|
34
|
-6 | 📉33 | $457.99 | -9.87% | $35.34 | 12.55% | Tue 4/15/25 |
|
35
|
-6 | 📉34 | $444.18 | -12.59% | $38.54 | 22.74% | Wed 4/16/25 |
|
36
|
-7 | 📉35 | $444.10 | -12.61% | $38.64 | 23.06% | Thu 4/17/25 |
|
37
|
-8 | 📉36 | $433.11 | -14.77% | $41.49 | 32.13% | Mon 4/21/25 |
|
38
|
-7 | 📉37 | $444.48 | -12.53% | $38.28 | 21.91% | Tue 4/22/25 |
|
39
|
-6 | 📉38 | $454.56 | -10.55% | $35.76 | 13.89% | Wed 4/23/25 |
|
40
|
-5 | 📉39 | $467.35 | -8.03% | $32.72 | 4.20% | Thu 4/24/25 |
|
41
|
-5 | 📉40 | $472.56 | -7.01% | $31.65 | 0.80% | Fri 4/25/25 |
|
42
|
-4 | 📉41 | $472.41 | -7.04% | $31.69 | 0.92% | Mon 4/28/25 |
|
43
|
-4 | 📉42 | $475.53 | -6.42% | $31.08 | -1.02% | Tue 4/29/25 |
|
44
|
-4 | 📉43 | $475.47 | -6.43% | $31.06 | -1.08% | Wed 4/30/25 |
|
45
|
2 | 📈1 | $481.68 | -5.21% | $30.01 | -4.43% | Thu 5/1/25 |
SQQQ vs QQQ Holdings
For a majority of the downtrend, it would have been nearly impossible to pick QQQ holdings that outperformed SQQQ.
As of close at the end of each week, SQQQ was outperforming 99% or more of QQQ holdings, until the last two weeks of the downtrend.
SQQQ outperformed 79% of QQQ holdings the second to last week of the downtrend, and 57% of QQQ holdings the last week of the downtrend (see table below)
Note that just buying and holding QQQ over the downtrend would have fared worse than buying and holdingSQQQ.
| A | B | C | D | E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
Market Cap | Symbol | %Chg since 📉1 | Close on 📉1 | Close |
|
2
|
177,323 M | QQQ | -5.21% | $508.17 | $481.68 |
|
3
|
107,821 M | MSTR | 49.40% | $255.43 | $381.60 |
|
4
|
293,262 M | PLTR | 36.83% | $84.92 | $116.20 |
|
5
|
84,530 M | CDNS | 19.65% | $250.50 | $299.73 |
|
6
|
48,901 M | AXON | 17.53% | $528.45 | $621.10 |
|
7
|
35,659 M | ZS | 15.71% | $196.23 | $227.06 |
|
8
|
492,169 M | NFLX | 15.59% | $980.56 | $1,133.47 |
|
9
|
39,379 M | EA | 12.38% | $129.12 | $145.10 |
|
10
|
38,741 M | TTWO | 10.94% | $211.98 | $235.17 |
|
11
|
109,208 M | CRWD | 10.84% | $389.66 | $431.88 |
|
12
|
59,144 M | CPRT | 10.40% | $54.80 | $60.50 |
|
13
|
58,438 M | MNST | 8.91% | $54.65 | $59.52 |
|
14
|
115,625 M | MELI | 8.14% | $2,121.87 | $2,294.52 |
|
15
|
37,951 M | IDXX | 7.84% | $437.11 | $471.38 |
|
16
|
3,235,238 M | MSFT | 7.16% | $396.99 | $425.40 |
|
17
|
47,106 M | FAST | 6.58% | $75.73 | $80.71 |
|
18
|
87,724 M | MDLZ | 5.67% | $64.23 | $67.87 |
|
19
|
46,923 M | EXC | 5.43% | $44.20 | $46.60 |
|
20
|
54,040 M | CHTR | 5.34% | $363.57 | $383.00 |
|
21
|
128,836 M | VRTX | 3.97% | $479.79 | $498.86 |
|
22
|
41,181 M | CCEP | 3.80% | $86.26 | $89.54 |
|
23
|
80,182 M | ORLY | 2.48% | $1,373.64 | $1,407.68 |
|
24
|
169,301 M | BKNG | 1.70% | $5,016.01 | $5,101.43 |
|
25
|
46,735 M | KDP | 1.55% | $33.52 | $34.04 |
|
26
|
176,594 M | INTU | 1.52% | $613.84 | $623.19 |
|
27
|
57,505 M | AEP | 1.40% | $106.05 | $107.54 |
|
28
|
85,421 M | CTAS | 0.99% | $207.50 | $209.55 |
|
29
|
73,024 M | SNPS | 0.45% | $457.28 | $459.36 |
|
30
|
32,890 M | CSGP | 0.43% | $76.25 | $76.58 |
|
31
|
59,638 M | ADSK | -0.26% | $274.21 | $273.49 |
|
32
|
41,130 M | VRSK | -0.81% | $296.91 | $294.51 |
|
33
|
46,198 M | ROST | -0.99% | $140.32 | $138.93 |
|
34
|
137,741 M | HON | -1.01% | $212.89 | $210.74 |
|
35
|
957,505 M | AVGO | -1.05% | $199.43 | $197.33 |
|
36
|
86,906 M | DASH | -1.13% | $198.44 | $196.20 |
|
37
|
124,276 M | PANW | -2.18% | $190.43 | $186.27 |
|
38
|
40,817 M | XEL | -2.36% | $72.10 | $70.40 |
|
39
|
160,514 M | AMD | -3.21% | $99.86 | $96.65 |
|
40
|
53,960 M | PAYX | -3.34% | $151.67 | $146.61 |
|
41
|
81,650 M | FTNT | -3.52% | $108.01 | $104.21 |
|
42
|
77,469 M | CEG | -3.96% | $250.55 | $240.62 |
|
43
|
28,903 M | ANSS | -4.06% | $333.25 | $319.73 |
|
44
|
214,156 M | LIN | -4.07% | $467.05 | $448.05 |
|
45
|
925,091 M | TSLA | -4.25% | $292.98 | $280.52 |
|
46
|
987 M | SQQQ | -4.43% | $31.40 | $30.01 |
|
47
|
92,326 M | KLAC | -4.59% | $708.84 | $676.31 |
|
48
|
60,784 M | ROP | -4.60% | $584.50 | $557.59 |
|
49
|
447,366 M | COST | -4.73% | $1,048.61 | $999.04 |
|
50
|
123,226 M | ADP | -5.23% | $315.18 | $298.69 |
|
51
|
1,990,463 M | GOOGL | -5.27% | $170.28 | $161.30 |
|
52
|
2,012,063 M | GOOG | -5.48% | $172.22 | $162.79 |
|
53
|
128,663 M | CMCSA | -5.74% | $35.88 | $33.82 |
|
54
|
126,010 M | AMAT | -5.76% | $158.07 | $148.96 |
|
55
|
271,438 M | ASML | -5.97% | $709.08 | $666.72 |
|
56
|
66,517 M | WDAY | -6.35% | $263.34 | $246.61 |
|
57
|
95,320 M | LRCX | -6.53% | $76.74 | $71.73 |
|
58
|
157,467 M | PDD | -6.79% | $113.69 | $105.97 |
|
59
|
33,897 M | KHC | -7.20% | $30.71 | $28.50 |
|
60
|
224,592 M | AZN | -7.48% | $76.21 | $70.51 |
|
61
|
151,214 M | AMGN | -7.88% | $308.06 | $283.78 |
|
62
|
65,393 M | PYPL | -7.94% | $71.05 | $65.41 |
|
63
|
282,590 M | TMUS | -8.41% | $269.69 | $247.00 |
|
64
|
36,260 M | DDOG | -8.78% | $116.55 | $106.32 |
|
65
|
21,983 M | CDW | -8.87% | $178.20 | $162.40 |
|
66
|
20,126 M | GFS | -9.26% | $38.77 | $35.18 |
|
67
|
236,032 M | CSCO | -9.34% | $64.11 | $58.12 |
|
68
|
129,082 M | GILD | -9.68% | $114.31 | $103.25 |
|
69
|
38,302 M | CTSH | -9.72% | $83.33 | $75.23 |
|
70
|
189,754 M | ISRG | -9.77% | $573.15 | $517.18 |
|
71
|
2,016,895 M | AMZN | -10.40% | $212.28 | $190.20 |
|
72
|
2,793,800 M | NVDA | -10.65% | $124.92 | $111.61 |
|
73
|
77,312 M | ABNB | -10.70% | $138.87 | $124.01 |
|
74
|
3,067,072 M | AAPL | -11.79% | $241.84 | $213.32 |
|
75
|
53,914 M | CSX | -12.18% | $32.01 | $28.11 |
|
76
|
129,927 M | ARM | -12.37% | $131.69 | $115.40 |
|
77
|
183,382 M | PEP | -12.98% | $153.47 | $133.55 |
|
78
|
68,697 M | MAR | -13.01% | $280.45 | $243.95 |
|
79
|
18,101 M | BIIB | -13.93% | $140.50 | $120.93 |
|
80
|
153,511 M | QCOM | -13.97% | $157.17 | $135.21 |
|
81
|
104,074 M | APP | -14.20% | $325.74 | $279.49 |
|
82
|
1,507,147 M | META | -14.37% | $668.20 | $572.21 |
|
83
|
162,327 M | ADBE | -14.58% | $438.56 | $374.63 |
|
84
|
33,521 M | ODFL | -14.70% | $176.50 | $150.56 |
|
85
|
40,233 M | FANG | -15.18% | $158.96 | $134.83 |
|
86
|
65,385 M | REGN | -15.56% | $698.74 | $590.00 |
|
87
|
47,530 M | NXPI | -15.65% | $215.59 | $181.84 |
|
88
|
98,496 M | ADI | -15.79% | $230.06 | $193.74 |
|
89
|
89,944 M | INTC | -15.80% | $23.73 | $19.98 |
|
90
|
17,688 M | ON | -15.83% | $47.05 | $39.60 |
|
91
|
47,194 M | PCAR | -16.28% | $107.24 | $89.78 |
|
92
|
90,210 M | MU | -16.94% | $93.63 | $77.77 |
|
93
|
36,757 M | BKR | -18.84% | $44.59 | $36.19 |
|
94
|
149,453 M | TXN | -19.25% | $195.99 | $158.26 |
|
95
|
54,622 M | TEAM | -19.42% | $284.26 | $229.07 |
|
96
|
32,004 M | DXCM | -20.49% | $88.37 | $70.26 |
|
97
|
25,767 M | MCHP | -21.88% | $58.86 | $45.98 |
|
98
|
32,292 M | GEHC | -22.53% | $87.35 | $67.67 |
|
99
|
26,589 M | TTD | -24.54% | $70.32 | $53.06 |
|
100
|
21,127 M | WBD | -26.44% | $11.46 | $8.43 |
|
101
|
34,744 M | LULU | -26.53% | $365.61 | $268.60 |
|
102
|
96,242 M | SBUX | -29.19% | $115.81 | $82.01 |
|
103
|
53,982 M | MRVL | -33.62% | $91.82 | $60.95 |
|
104
|
13,935 M | MDB | -35.61% | $267.43 | $172.19 |
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