Nov. 7th 2025

QQQ gives back πŸ’Έ

This was the worst week for the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) since Liberation Day. The index fell -3.07% this week, while TQQQ fell -9.37%.

More than 10% of QQQ holdings closed at 52-week lows yesterday. Today 5% of the index closed at 52-week lows. Both are signs of weakness.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index fell to its second-lowest reading of all-time:

At 133 days, this has been longest uptrend on record since Raincheck Fund began. Valuations are extended, and we've seen TQQQ cross above +100% return since the uptrend began.

The Market Signal finished the day at +3 NEUTRAL/WEAK BULLISH, but was as low as +1 NEUTRAL/WEAK BULLISH at Friday's intraday low (QQQ $598.67). ⚠️ A value of +1 is the weakest possible bullish signal (anything else is 0 or bearish) ⚠️.

The abrupt decline in Market Signal strength indicates the uptrend is losing steam, and suggests it may be in jeopardy.

NASDAQ-100 52-week highs

The following NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) holdings closed at a 52-week high today:

  • DDOG $191.24 +0.22%

Market Signal+3 NEUTRAL/WEAK BULLISH

πŸ“ˆ133rd day of uptrend

Day πŸ“ˆ1 of current uptrend occurred on Thurs. May 1st 2025.

  • QQQ +26.59% since start of current uptrend
  • TQQQ +86.33% since start of current uptrend
A B C D E F G
1
Market Signal Trend Count QQQ Close QQQ %chg since πŸ“ˆ1 TQQQ close TQQQ %chg since πŸ“ˆ1 Date
2
2 πŸ“ˆ1 $481.68 0.00% $56.77 0.00% Thu 5/1/25
3
2 πŸ“ˆ2 $488.83 1.48% $59.43 4.69% Fri 5/2/25
4
2 πŸ“ˆ3 $485.93 0.88% $58.40 2.87% Mon 5/5/25
5
2 πŸ“ˆ4 $481.41 -0.06% $56.74 -0.05% Tue 5/6/25
6
2 πŸ“ˆ5 $483.30 0.34% $57.40 1.11% Wed 5/7/25
7
2 πŸ“ˆ6 $488.29 1.37% $59.11 4.12% Thu 5/8/25
8
2 πŸ“ˆ7 $487.97 1.31% $58.97 3.88% Fri 5/9/25
9
3 πŸ“ˆ8 $507.85 5.43% $66.11 16.45% Mon 5/12/25
10
3 πŸ“ˆ9 $515.59 7.04% $69.14 21.79% Tue 5/13/25
11
3 πŸ“ˆ10 $518.68 7.68% $70.36 23.94% Wed 5/14/25
12
3 πŸ“ˆ11 $519.25 7.80% $70.58 24.33% Thu 5/15/25
13
3 πŸ“ˆ12 $521.51 8.27% $71.45 25.86% Fri 5/16/25
14
3 πŸ“ˆ13 $522.01 8.37% $71.64 26.19% Mon 5/19/25
15
3 πŸ“ˆ14 $520.27 8.01% $70.89 24.87% Tue 5/20/25
16
3 πŸ“ˆ15 $513.04 6.51% $67.94 19.68% Wed 5/21/25
17
2 πŸ“ˆ16 $514.00 6.71% $68.29 20.29% Thu 5/22/25
18
2 πŸ“ˆ17 $509.24 5.72% $66.32 16.82% Fri 5/23/25
19
4 πŸ“ˆ18 $521.22 8.21% $70.94 24.96% Tue 5/27/25
20
3 πŸ“ˆ19 $518.91 7.73% $70.03 23.36% Wed 5/28/25
21
3 πŸ“ˆ20 $519.93 7.94% $70.37 23.96% Thu 5/29/25
22
3 πŸ“ˆ21 $519.11 7.77% $70.00 23.30% Fri 5/30/25
23
4 πŸ“ˆ22 $523.21 8.62% $71.61 26.14% Mon 6/2/25
24
4 πŸ“ˆ23 $527.30 9.47% $73.28 29.08% Tue 6/3/25
25
3 πŸ“ˆ24 $528.77 9.78% $73.87 30.12% Wed 6/4/25
26
3 πŸ“ˆ25 $524.79 8.95% $72.15 27.09% Thu 6/5/25
27
4 πŸ“ˆ26 $529.92 10.01% $74.21 30.72% Fri 6/6/25
28
3 πŸ“ˆ27 $530.70 10.18% $74.54 31.30% Mon 6/9/25
29
3 πŸ“ˆ28 $534.21 10.91% $75.98 33.84% Tue 6/10/25
30
3 πŸ“ˆ29 $532.41 10.53% $75.20 32.46% Wed 6/11/25
31
3 πŸ“ˆ30 $533.66 10.79% $75.69 33.33% Thu 6/12/25
32
2 πŸ“ˆ31 $526.96 9.40% $72.83 28.29% Fri 6/13/25
33
3 πŸ“ˆ32 $534.29 10.92% $75.80 33.52% Mon 6/16/25
34
2 πŸ“ˆ33 $529.08 9.84% $73.56 29.58% Tue 6/17/25
35
2 πŸ“ˆ34 $528.99 9.82% $73.46 29.40% Wed 6/18/25
36
2 πŸ“ˆ35 $526.83 9.37% $72.45 27.62% Fri 6/20/25
37
7 πŸ“ˆ36 $531.65 10.37% $74.70 31.58% Mon 6/23/25
38
7 πŸ“ˆ37 $539.78 12.06% $78.10 37.57% Tue 6/24/25
39
7 πŸ“ˆ38 $541.16 12.35% $78.48 38.24% Wed 6/25/25
40
8 πŸ“ˆ39 $546.22 13.40% $80.63 42.03% Thu 6/26/25
41
7 πŸ“ˆ40 $548.09 13.79% $81.42 43.42% Fri 6/27/25
42
8 πŸ“ˆ41 $551.64 14.52% $83.00 46.20% Mon 6/30/25
43
7 πŸ“ˆ42 $546.99 13.56% $80.89 42.49% Tue 7/1/25
44
7 πŸ“ˆ43 $550.80 14.35% $82.50 45.32% Wed 7/2/25
45
8 πŸ“ˆ44 $556.22 15.48% $84.81 49.39% Thu 7/3/25
46
7 πŸ“ˆ45 $552.03 14.61% $82.92 46.06% Mon 7/7/25
47
7 πŸ“ˆ46 $552.34 14.67% $83.03 46.26% Tue 7/8/25
48
7 πŸ“ˆ47 $556.25 15.48% $84.75 49.29% Wed 7/9/25
49
7 πŸ“ˆ48 $555.45 15.32% $84.36 48.60% Thu 7/10/25
50
7 πŸ“ˆ49 $554.20 15.06% $83.72 47.47% Fri 7/11/25
51
7 πŸ“ˆ50 $556.21 15.47% $84.61 49.04% Mon 7/14/25
52
7 πŸ“ˆ51 $556.72 15.58% $84.83 49.43% Tue 7/15/25
53
7 πŸ“ˆ52 $557.29 15.70% $85.07 49.85% Wed 7/16/25
54
7 πŸ“ˆ53 $561.80 16.63% $87.05 53.34% Thu 7/17/25
55
7 πŸ“ˆ54 $561.26 16.52% $86.75 52.81% Fri 7/18/25
56
7 πŸ“ˆ55 $564.17 17.13% $88.07 55.13% Mon 7/21/25
57
7 πŸ“ˆ56 $561.25 16.52% $86.70 52.72% Tue 7/22/25
58
7 πŸ“ˆ57 $563.81 17.05% $87.84 54.73% Wed 7/23/25
59
7 πŸ“ˆ58 $565.01 17.30% $88.42 55.75% Thu 7/24/25
60
7 πŸ“ˆ59 $566.37 17.58% $88.92 56.63% Fri 7/25/25
61
7 πŸ“ˆ60 $568.14 17.95% $89.79 58.16% Mon 7/28/25
62
7 πŸ“ˆ61 $567.26 17.77% $89.38 57.44% Tue 7/29/25
63
7 πŸ“ˆ62 $568.02 17.92% $89.69 57.99% Wed 7/30/25
64
6 πŸ“ˆ63 $565.01 17.30% $88.21 55.38% Thu 7/31/25
65
5 πŸ“ˆ64 $553.88 14.99% $82.92 46.06% Fri 8/1/25
66
7 πŸ“ˆ65 $564.10 17.11% $87.46 54.06% Mon 8/4/25
67
6 πŸ“ˆ66 $560.27 16.32% $85.64 50.85% Tue 8/5/25
68
7 πŸ“ˆ67 $567.32 17.78% $88.84 56.49% Wed 8/6/25
69
7 πŸ“ˆ68 $569.24 18.18% $89.74 58.08% Thu 8/7/25
70
7 πŸ“ˆ69 $574.55 19.28% $92.16 62.34% Fri 8/8/25
71
7 πŸ“ˆ70 $572.85 18.93% $91.35 60.91% Mon 8/11/25
72
7 πŸ“ˆ71 $580.05 20.42% $94.72 66.85% Tue 8/12/25
73
7 πŸ“ˆ72 $580.34 20.48% $94.86 67.10% Wed 8/13/25
74
7 πŸ“ˆ73 $579.89 20.39% $94.60 66.64% Thu 8/14/25
75
7 πŸ“ˆ74 $577.34 19.86% $93.26 64.28% Fri 8/15/25
76
7 πŸ“ˆ75 $577.11 19.81% $93.14 64.07% Mon 8/18/25
77
6 πŸ“ˆ76 $569.28 18.19% $89.34 57.37% Tue 8/19/25
78
5 πŸ“ˆ77 $565.90 17.48% $87.71 54.50% Wed 8/20/25
79
5 πŸ“ˆ78 $563.28 16.94% $86.49 52.35% Thu 8/21/25
80
6 πŸ“ˆ79 $571.97 18.74% $90.38 59.20% Fri 8/22/25
81
6 πŸ“ˆ80 $570.32 18.40% $89.59 57.81% Mon 8/25/25
82
6 πŸ“ˆ81 $572.61 18.88% $90.63 59.64% Tue 8/26/25
83
7 πŸ“ˆ82 $573.49 19.06% $91.04 60.37% Wed 8/27/25
84
7 πŸ“ˆ83 $577.08 19.81% $92.70 63.29% Thu 8/28/25
85
5 πŸ“ˆ84 $570.40 18.42% $89.36 57.41% Fri 8/29/25
86
5 πŸ“ˆ85 $565.62 17.43% $87.08 53.39% Tue 9/2/25
87
6.5 πŸ“ˆ86 $570.07 18.35% $89.11 56.97% Wed 9/3/25
88
7 πŸ“ˆ87 $575.23 19.42% $91.52 61.21% Thu 9/4/25
89
7 πŸ“ˆ88 $576.06 19.59% $91.82 61.74% Fri 9/5/25
90
7 πŸ“ˆ89 $578.87 20.18% $93.13 64.05% Mon 9/8/25
91
7 πŸ“ˆ90 $580.51 20.52% $93.89 65.39% Tue 9/9/25
92
7 πŸ“ˆ91 $580.70 20.56% $93.99 65.56% Wed 9/10/25
93
7 πŸ“ˆ92 $584.08 21.26% $95.57 68.35% Thu 9/11/25
94
7 πŸ“ˆ93 $586.66 21.79% $96.76 70.44% Fri 9/12/25
95
7 πŸ“ˆ94 $591.68 22.84% $99.23 74.79% Mon 9/15/25
96
7 πŸ“ˆ95 $591.18 22.73% $98.96 74.32% Tue 9/16/25
97
7 πŸ“ˆ96 $590.00 22.49% $98.33 73.21% Wed 9/17/25
98
7 πŸ“ˆ97 $595.32 23.59% $100.98 77.88% Thu 9/18/25
99
7 πŸ“ˆ98 $599.35 24.43% $102.98 81.40% Fri 9/19/25
100
7 πŸ“ˆ99 $602.20 25.02% $104.72 84.46% Mon 9/22/25
101
7 πŸ“ˆ100 $598.20 24.19% $102.61 80.75% Tue 9/23/25
102
7 πŸ“ˆ101 $596.10 23.75% $101.41 78.63% Wed 9/24/25
103
6 πŸ“ˆ102 $593.53 23.22% $100.05 76.24% Thu 9/25/25
104
7 πŸ“ˆ103 $595.97 23.73% $101.25 78.35% Fri 9/26/25
105
7 πŸ“ˆ104 $598.73 24.30% $102.60 80.73% Mon 9/29/25
106
7 πŸ“ˆ105 $600.37 24.64% $103.40 82.14% Tue 9/30/25
107
7 πŸ“ˆ106 $603.25 25.24% $104.86 84.71% Wed 10/1/25
108
8 πŸ“ˆ107 $605.73 25.75% $106.14 86.96% Thu 10/2/25
109
7 πŸ“ˆ108 $603.18 25.22% $104.70 84.43% Fri 10/3/25
110
8 πŸ“ˆ109 $607.71 26.16% $107.04 88.55% Mon 10/6/25
111
7 πŸ“ˆ110 $604.51 25.50% $105.31 85.50% Tue 10/7/25
112
8 πŸ“ˆ111 $611.44 26.94% $108.88 91.79% Wed 10/8/25
113
7 πŸ“ˆ112 $610.70 26.79% $108.45 91.03% Thu 10/9/25
114
5 πŸ“ˆ113 $589.50 22.38% $97.07 70.99% Fri 10/10/25
115
4 πŸ“ˆ114 $602.01 24.98% $103.23 81.84% Mon 10/13/25
116
6 πŸ“ˆ115 $598.00 24.15% $101.13 78.14% Tue 10/14/25
117
6 πŸ“ˆ116 $602.22 25.02% $103.20 81.79% Wed 10/15/25
118
6 πŸ“ˆ117 $599.99 24.56% $102.05 79.76% Thu 10/16/25
119
7 πŸ“ˆ118 $603.93 25.38% $103.99 83.18% Fri 10/17/25
120
8 πŸ“ˆ119 $611.54 26.96% $107.89 90.05% Mon 10/20/25
121
7 πŸ“ˆ120 $611.38 26.93% $107.77 89.84% Tue 10/21/25
122
7 πŸ“ˆ121 $605.49 25.70% $104.60 84.25% Wed 10/22/25
123
7 πŸ“ˆ122 $610.58 26.76% $107.22 88.87% Thu 10/23/25
124
8 πŸ“ˆ123 $617.10 28.11% $110.56 94.75% Fri 10/24/25
125
8 πŸ“ˆ124 $628.09 30.40% $116.43 105.09% Mon 10/27/25
126
8 πŸ“ˆ125 $632.92 31.40% $119.09 109.78% Tue 10/28/25
127
8 πŸ“ˆ126 $635.77 31.99% $120.61 112.45% Wed 10/29/25
128
7 πŸ“ˆ127 $626.05 29.97% $115.09 102.73% Thu 10/30/25
129
7 πŸ“ˆ128 $629.07 30.60% $116.72 105.60% Fri 10/31/25
130
8 πŸ“ˆ129 $632.08 31.22% $118.32 108.42% Mon 11/3/25
131
6 πŸ“ˆ130 $619.25 28.56% $111.08 95.67% Tue 11/4/25
132
6 πŸ“ˆ131 $623.28 29.40% $113.24 99.47% Wed 11/5/25
133
5 πŸ“ˆ132 $611.67 26.99% $106.89 88.29% Thu 11/6/25
134
3 πŸ“ˆ133 $609.74 26.59% $105.78 86.33% Fri 11/7/25

Market Signal, Trend Count, closing prices, and cumulative return (%) over current uptrend


TQQQ vs QQQ Holdings

TQQQ is outperforming 94% of QQQ holdings since day πŸ“ˆ1 of current uptrend (Thurs. May 1st 2025), including all of the Magnificent 7.

A B C D E
1
Market Cap Symbol %Chg since πŸ“ˆ1 Close on πŸ“ˆ1 Close
2
399,654 M QQQ 26.59% $481.68 $609.74
3
267,057 M MU 205.93% $77.77 $237.92
4
56,176 M WBD 168.92% $8.43 $22.67
5
380,213 M AMD 141.63% $96.65 $233.54
6
200,148 M LRCX 122.15% $71.73 $159.35
7
209,508 M APP 121.81% $279.49 $619.93
8
181,880 M INTC 90.84% $19.98 $38.13
9
28,434 M TQQQ 86.33% $56.77 $105.78
10
66,694 M DDOG 79.87% $106.32 $191.24
11
1,650,136 M AVGO 77.08% $197.33 $349.43
12
156,800 M KLAC 76.45% $676.31 $1,193.37
13
3,364,642 M GOOGL 72.86% $161.30 $278.83
14
3,375,140 M GOOG 71.82% $162.79 $279.70
15
4,580,888 M NVDA 68.58% $111.61 $188.15
16
198,414 M SHOP 57.11% $97.01 $152.41
17
183,284 M AMAT 54.45% $148.96 $230.07
18
424,085 M PLTR 53.12% $116.20 $177.93
19
1,428,506 M TSLA 53.12% $280.52 $429.52
20
394,731 M ASML 52.53% $666.72 $1,016.96
21
56,571 M IDXX 50.29% $471.38 $708.45
22
78,382 M MRVL 49.17% $60.95 $90.92
23
111,963 M CEG 48.95% $240.62 $358.39
24
50,658 M ZS 40.94% $227.06 $320.01
25
50,031 M EA 38.25% $145.10 $200.60
26
47,237 M BKR 32.27% $36.19 $47.87
27
161,675 M ARM 32.05% $115.40 $152.38
28
22,814 M BIIB 28.60% $120.93 $155.51
29
2,612,796 M AMZN 28.50% $190.20 $244.41
30
192,760 M PDD 28.13% $105.97 $135.78
31
183,023 M QCOM 26.39% $135.21 $170.89
32
3,967,007 M AAPL 25.85% $213.32 $268.47
33
65,808 M CSX 25.72% $28.11 $35.34
34
135,468 M CRWD 24.99% $431.88 $539.81
35
30,373 M MCHP 22.40% $45.98 $56.28
36
280,067 M CSCO 22.28% $58.12 $71.07
37
19,561 M ON 20.78% $39.60 $47.83
38
262,244 M AZN 19.95% $70.51 $84.58
39
78,133 M MAR 19.35% $243.95 $291.16
40
112,402 M ADI 17.93% $193.74 $228.48
41
68,086 M MNST 17.15% $59.52 $69.73
42
3,692,554 M MSFT 16.79% $425.40 $496.82
43
52,387 M ROST 15.94% $138.93 $161.08
44
147,599 M GILD 15.10% $103.25 $118.84
45
47,861 M XEL 14.93% $70.40 $80.91
46
143,690 M PANW 13.97% $186.27 $212.29
47
64,997 M AEP 12.92% $107.54 $121.43
48
172,422 M AMGN 12.83% $283.78 $320.20
49
51,483 M NXPI 12.49% $181.84 $204.56
50
69,106 M REGN 11.45% $590.00 $657.53
51
51,832 M PCAR 9.92% $89.78 $98.69
52
63,299 M ADSK 8.66% $273.49 $297.18
53
1,567,037 M META 8.65% $572.21 $621.71
54
88,479 M CDNS 8.45% $299.73 $325.05
55
198,518 M ISRG 8.28% $517.18 $560.00
56
33,276 M GEHC 7.95% $67.67 $73.05
57
195,461 M PEP 7.04% $133.55 $142.95
58
41,159 M FANG 6.54% $134.83 $143.65
59
97,285 M SBUX 4.34% $82.01 $85.57
60
87,280 M DASH 4.13% $196.20 $204.31
61
180,903 M INTU 4.12% $623.19 $648.85
62
82,141 M ORLY 3.46% $93.85 $97.09
63
41,209 M CCEP 2.09% $89.54 $91.41
64
145,879 M TXN 1.45% $158.26 $160.55
65
61,959 M PYPL 1.24% $65.41 $66.22
66
46,897 M FAST 1.23% $40.35 $40.85
67
46,593 M EXC -0.84% $46.60 $46.21
68
42,797 M TTWO -1.35% $235.17 $232.00
69
123,213 M HON -2.26% $0.00 $194.07
70
74,007 M ABNB -2.52% $124.01 $120.88
71
467,656 M NFLX -2.63% $1,133.47 $1,103.66
72
35,330 M CTSH -2.70% $75.23 $73.20
73
47,544 M AXON -2.99% $621.10 $602.51
74
18,913 M GFS -3.13% $35.18 $34.08
75
159,235 M BKNG -3.16% $5,101.43 $4,940.00
76
196,357 M LIN -6.15% $448.05 $420.51
77
29,403 M ODFL -7.08% $150.56 $139.90
78
408,939 M COST -7.64% $999.04 $922.74
79
106,900 M MELI -8.10% $2,294.52 $2,108.60
80
60,120 M WDAY -8.69% $246.61 $225.17
81
74,373 M CTAS -11.68% $209.55 $185.07
82
28,617 M CSGP -11.83% $76.58 $67.52
83
18,546 M CDW -12.28% $162.40 $142.45
84
136,861 M ADBE -12.73% $374.63 $326.95
85
73,079 M SNPS -14.35% $459.36 $393.43
86
28,739 M KHC -14.81% $28.50 $24.28
87
102,795 M ADP -14.91% $298.69 $254.16
88
73,783 M MDLZ -15.75% $67.87 $57.18
89
231,531 M TMUS -16.19% $247.00 $207.00
90
103,890 M VRTX -17.92% $498.86 $409.47
91
21,025 M TTD -18.96% $53.06 $43.00
92
99,661 M CMCSA -19.13% $33.82 $27.35
93
48,119 M ROP -19.82% $557.59 $447.05
94
62,673 M FTNT -21.51% $104.21 $81.79
95
21,451 M DXCM -21.72% $70.26 $55.00
96
40,294 M PAYX -23.63% $146.61 $111.96
97
35,269 M KDP -23.74% $34.04 $25.96
98
61,197 M TRI -25.93% $185.74 $137.57
99
29,918 M VRSK -27.11% $294.51 $214.66
100
41,527 M TEAM -31.10% $229.07 $157.83
101
39,207 M CPRT -33.04% $60.50 $40.51
102
69,519 M MSTR -36.60% $381.60 $241.93
103
19,700 M LULU -38.15% $268.60 $166.13
104
28,452 M CHTR -42.60% $383.00 $219.86

Assuming 3% for the risk-free rate, the Sharpe Ratio for this investment is 2.85.


The distribution shows that the Market Signal was highly effective in identifying a sustained bullish phase. Nearly every daily close since the signal has maintained positive cumulative returns, with the highest concentration between +40% and +60%, and extreme outcomes reaching over +100%.


Disclaimer: The information that Raincheck Fund provides is general in nature as it has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not intended as legal, financial or investment advice and should not be construed or relied on as such. Raincheck Fund is for information purposes only. Raincheck Fund is not responsible for any damages or losses that may occur as a result of reliance on this information. Before making any commitment of a legal or financial nature you should seek advice from a qualified and registered legal practitioner or financial or investment adviser.

All content, group, messaging, tweets, newsletter, article, and email created by Raincheck Fund is intended for educational and information purposes only, is not financial, investment, legal or tax advice, and is a restatement, summary or extract of other data and research reports that are widely distributed and publicly available. Raincheck Fund is not a registered financial, investment, legal or tax advisor and is not liable for any financial loss you may incur acting on any information provided by Raincheck Fund.

Investment advice provided solely by Autopilot advisers LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including the risk of the loss of principal.

Investing in securities involves significant risk, including the risk of loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and there can be no assurance that any investment strategy or security will meet its objectives or achieve any specific financial outcome. You should only invest risk capital that you can afford to lose without impacting your financial stability. Carefully consider your individual financial situation, investment goals, and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

Subscribe to Raincheck Fund

Don’t miss out on the latest posts. Sign up now to get access to the library of members-only posts.
jamie@example.com
Subscribe