Wed. Jan. 8th 2025
Uptrend ends, downtrend begins π
Market Signal: -2
WEAK BEARISH
January 8th's Market Signal value of -2
is the first negative value after 100 consecutive days of positive values (Aug. 15th 2024 through Jan. 7th 2025).
This marks the end of the uptrend and the first day of a new downtrend.
Investing in
TQQQ
per Raincheck Fund's Market Signal over the uptrend that just ended outperformed 7 in 10 NASDAQ-100 stocks, and outperformed QQQ
by more than 2x.π100 day uptrend concludes
Had one opened a position in QQQ
or TQQQ
after market close on the first day of the uptrend (Aug. 15th 2024) and held until the uptrend ended (Jan. 8th 2025) the returns would be as follows:
QQQ
+8.61%TQQQ
+17.85%
The table below shows the QQQ
chart over this time frame, as well as the returns of QQQ
and TQQQ
after market close each day.
A | B | C | D | E | F | G | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
|
Market Signal | Trend Count | QQQ Close | QQQ %chg since π1 | TQQQ close | TQQQ %chg since π1 | Date |
2
|
1 | π1 | $474.42 | 0.00% | $68.46 | 0.00% | Thu 8/15/24 |
3
|
3 | π2 | $475.02 | 0.13% | $68.64 | 0.26% | Fri 8/16/24 |
4
|
4 | π3 | $481.27 | 1.44% | $71.30 | 4.15% | Mon 8/19/24 |
5
|
3 | π4 | $480.26 | 1.23% | $70.86 | 3.51% | Tue 8/20/24 |
6
|
3 | π5 | $482.50 | 1.70% | $71.83 | 4.92% | Wed 8/21/24 |
7
|
7 | π6 | $474.85 | 0.09% | $68.38 | -0.12% | Thu 8/22/24 |
8
|
8 | π7 | $480.00 | 1.18% | $70.53 | 3.02% | Fri 8/23/24 |
9
|
7 | π8 | $475.34 | 0.19% | $68.46 | 0.00% | Mon 8/26/24 |
10
|
8 | π9 | $476.76 | 0.49% | $69.04 | 0.85% | Tue 8/27/24 |
11
|
5 | π10 | $471.35 | -0.65% | $66.70 | -2.57% | Wed 8/28/24 |
12
|
5 | π11 | $470.66 | -0.79% | $66.35 | -3.08% | Thu 8/29/24 |
13
|
7 | π12 | $476.27 | 0.39% | $68.61 | 0.22% | Fri 8/30/24 |
14
|
4 | π13 | $461.81 | -2.66% | $62.35 | -8.92% | Tue 9/3/24 |
15
|
2 | π14 | $460.61 | -2.91% | $61.82 | -9.70% | Wed 9/4/24 |
16
|
2 | π15 | $461.04 | -2.82% | $62.02 | -9.41% | Thu 9/5/24 |
17
|
1 | π16 | $448.69 | -5.42% | $56.99 | -16.75% | Fri 9/6/24 |
18
|
1 | π17 | $454.46 | -4.21% | $59.11 | -13.66% | Mon 9/9/24 |
19
|
1 | π18 | $458.66 | -3.32% | $60.70 | -11.34% | Tue 9/10/24 |
20
|
1 | π19 | $468.62 | -1.22% | $64.57 | -5.68% | Wed 9/11/24 |
21
|
5 | π20 | $473.22 | -0.25% | $66.48 | -2.89% | Thu 9/12/24 |
22
|
5 | π21 | $475.34 | 0.19% | $67.35 | -1.62% | Fri 9/13/24 |
23
|
1 | π22 | $473.24 | -0.25% | $66.45 | -2.94% | Mon 9/16/24 |
24
|
1 | π23 | $473.49 | -0.20% | $66.49 | -2.88% | Tue 9/17/24 |
25
|
3 | π24 | $471.44 | -0.63% | $65.62 | -4.15% | Wed 9/18/24 |
26
|
3 | π25 | $483.36 | 1.88% | $70.58 | 3.10% | Thu 9/19/24 |
27
|
7 | π26 | $482.44 | 1.69% | $70.13 | 2.44% | Fri 9/20/24 |
28
|
7 | π27 | $483.04 | 1.82% | $70.65 | 3.20% | Mon 9/23/24 |
29
|
7 | π28 | $485.37 | 2.31% | $71.65 | 4.66% | Tue 9/24/24 |
30
|
7 | π29 | $485.95 | 2.43% | $71.67 | 4.69% | Wed 9/25/24 |
31
|
7 | π30 | $489.47 | 3.17% | $73.19 | 6.91% | Thu 9/26/24 |
32
|
7 | π31 | $486.75 | 2.60% | $71.93 | 5.07% | Fri 9/27/24 |
33
|
7 | π32 | $488.07 | 2.88% | $72.49 | 5.89% | Mon 9/30/24 |
34
|
6 | π33 | $481.27 | 1.44% | $69.42 | 1.40% | Tue 10/1/24 |
35
|
6 | π34 | $481.95 | 1.59% | $69.68 | 1.78% | Wed 10/2/24 |
36
|
6 | π35 | $481.59 | 1.51% | $69.52 | 1.55% | Thu 10/3/24 |
37
|
7 | π36 | $487.32 | 2.72% | $71.97 | 5.13% | Fri 10/4/24 |
38
|
6 | π37 | $482.10 | 1.62% | $69.60 | 1.67% | Mon 10/7/24 |
39
|
7 | π38 | $489.30 | 3.14% | $72.62 | 6.08% | Tue 10/8/24 |
40
|
8 | π39 | $493.15 | 3.95% | $74.37 | 8.63% | Wed 10/9/24 |
41
|
8 | π40 | $492.59 | 3.83% | $74.11 | 8.25% | Thu 10/10/24 |
42
|
8 | π41 | $493.36 | 3.99% | $74.30 | 8.53% | Fri 10/11/24 |
43
|
8 | π42 | $497.50 | 4.86% | $76.20 | 11.31% | Mon 10/14/24 |
44
|
7 | π43 | $490.85 | 3.46% | $73.16 | 6.87% | Tue 10/15/24 |
45
|
8 | π44 | $490.91 | 3.48% | $73.12 | 6.81% | Wed 10/16/24 |
46
|
8 | π45 | $491.25 | 3.55% | $73.34 | 7.13% | Thu 10/17/24 |
47
|
7 | π46 | $494.47 | 4.23% | $74.64 | 9.03% | Fri 10/18/24 |
48
|
7 | π47 | $495.42 | 4.43% | $75.05 | 9.63% | Mon 10/21/24 |
49
|
7 | π48 | $495.96 | 4.54% | $75.27 | 9.95% | Tue 10/22/24 |
50
|
6 | π49 | $488.36 | 2.94% | $71.79 | 4.86% | Wed 10/23/24 |
51
|
6 | π50 | $492.32 | 3.77% | $71.79 | 4.86% | Thu 10/24/24 |
52
|
7 | π51 | $495.32 | 4.41% | $74.74 | 9.17% | Fri 10/25/24 |
53
|
7 | π52 | $495.40 | 4.42% | $74.81 | 9.28% | Mon 10/28/24 |
54
|
7 | π53 | $500.16 | 5.43% | $76.88 | 12.30% | Tue 10/29/24 |
55
|
7 | π54 | $496.47 | 4.65% | $75.14 | 9.76% | Wed 10/30/24 |
56
|
5 | π55 | $483.85 | 1.99% | $69.45 | 1.45% | Thu 10/31/24 |
57
|
3 | π56 | $487.43 | 2.74% | $70.97 | 3.67% | Fri 11/1/24 |
58
|
5 | π57 | $486.01 | 2.44% | $70.27 | 2.64% | Mon 11/4/24 |
59
|
7 | π58 | $492.21 | 3.75% | $72.94 | 6.54% | Tue 11/5/24 |
60
|
8 | π59 | $505.58 | 6.57% | $78.86 | 15.19% | Wed 11/6/24 |
61
|
8 | π60 | $513.54 | 8.25% | $82.55 | 20.58% | Thu 11/7/24 |
62
|
7 | π61 | $514.14 | 8.37% | $82.75 | 20.87% | Fri 11/8/24 |
63
|
8 | π62 | $513.84 | 8.31% | $82.60 | 20.65% | Mon 11/11/24 |
64
|
8 | π63 | $512.91 | 8.11% | $82.15 | 20.00% | Tue 11/12/24 |
65
|
8 | π64 | $512.25 | 7.97% | $81.79 | 19.47% | Wed 11/13/24 |
66
|
8 | π65 | $508.69 | 7.09% | $80.06 | 16.64% | Thu 11/14/24 |
67
|
5 | π66 | $496.57 | 4.67% | $74.27 | 8.49% | Fri 11/15/24 |
68
|
6 | π67 | $500.02 | 5.40% | $75.77 | 10.68% | Mon 11/18/24 |
69
|
6 | π68 | $503.46 | 6.12% | $77.29 | 12.90% | Tue 11/19/24 |
70
|
7 | π69 | $503.17 | 6.06% | $77.20 | 12.77% | Wed 11/20/24 |
71
|
7 | π70 | $504.98 | 6.44% | $77.96 | 13.88% | Thu 11/21/24 |
72
|
7 | π71 | $505.79 | 6.61% | $78.25 | 14.30% | Fri 11/22/24 |
73
|
8 | π72 | $506.59 | 6.78% | $78.61 | 14.83% | Mon 11/25/24 |
74
|
8 | π73 | $509.31 | 7.35% | $79.83 | 16.61% | Tue 11/26/24 |
75
|
7 | π74 | $505.30 | 6.51% | $77.90 | 13.79% | Wed 11/27/24 |
76
|
7 | π75 | $509.74 | 7.44% | $79.89 | 16.70% | Fri 11/29/24 |
77
|
8 | π76 | $515.29 | 8.61% | $82.48 | 20.48% | Mon 12/2/24 |
78
|
7 | π77 | $516.87 | 8.95% | $83.21 | 21.55% | Tue 12/3/24 |
79
|
8 | π78 | $523.26 | 10.29% | $86.25 | 25.99% | Wed 12/4/24 |
80
|
8 | π79 | $521.81 | 9.99% | $85.54 | 24.95% | Thu 12/5/24 |
81
|
8 | π80 | $526.48 | 10.97% | $87.74 | 28.16% | Fri 12/6/24 |
82
|
7 | π81 | $522.38 | 10.11% | $85.69 | 25.17% | Mon 12/9/24 |
83
|
7 | π82 | $520.60 | 9.73% | $84.76 | 23.81% | Tue 12/10/24 |
84
|
8 | π83 | $529.92 | 11.70% | $89.29 | 30.43% | Wed 12/11/24 |
85
|
7 | π84 | $526.50 | 10.98% | $87.52 | 27.84% | Thu 12/12/24 |
86
|
7 | π85 | $530.53 | 11.83% | $89.40 | 30.59% | Fri 12/13/24 |
87
|
7 | π86 | $538.17 | 13.44% | $93.29 | 36.27% | Mon 12/16/24 |
88
|
7 | π87 | $535.80 | 12.94% | $92.04 | 34.44% | Tue 12/17/24 |
89
|
3 | π88 | $516.47 | 8.86% | $82.09 | 19.91% | Wed 12/18/24 |
90
|
3 | π89 | $514.17 | 8.38% | $80.93 | 18.22% | Thu 12/19/24 |
91
|
4 | π90 | $518.66 | 9.33% | $83.03 | 21.28% | Fri 12/20/24 |
92
|
4 | π91 | $522.87 | 10.21% | $85.06 | 24.25% | Mon 12/23/24 |
93
|
5 | π92 | $529.96 | 11.71% | $88.44 | 29.18% | Tue 12/24/24 |
94
|
5 | π93 | $529.60 | 11.63% | $88.25 | 28.91% | Thu 12/26/24 |
95
|
4 | π94 | $522.56 | 10.15% | $84.66 | 23.66% | Fri 12/27/24 |
96
|
3 | π95 | $515.61 | 8.68% | $81.26 | 18.70% | Mon 12/30/24 |
97
|
2 | π96 | $511.23 | 7.76% | $79.13 | 15.59% | Tue 12/31/24 |
98
|
2 | π97 | $510.23 | 7.55% | $78.63 | 14.86% | Thu 1/2/25 |
99
|
3 | π98 | $518.58 | 9.31% | $82.40 | 20.36% | Fri 1/3/25 |
100
|
5 | π99 | $524.54 | 10.56% | $85.21 | 24.47% | Mon 1/6/25 |
101
|
2 | π100 | $515.18 | 8.59% | $80.62 | 17.76% | Tue 1/7/25 |
102
|
-2 | π1 | $515.27 | 8.61% | $80.68 | 17.85% | Wed 1/8/25 |
Market Signal, Trend Count, closing prices, and return (%) over current uptrend
TQQQ vs QQQ Holdings
The table below compares TQQQ
's returns to QQQ
and its holdings over the duration of the uptrend that just ended.
TQQQ
outperformed QQQ
over this time frame by +9.24% (their returns were +17.85% and +8.61% respectively). As a ratio however, TQQQ
's return was more than 2x QQQ
's. For example, a $10,000 investment in TQQQ
and QQQ
over this timeframe would have returned $1785 and $861 respectively.
Additionally, TQQQ
outperformed 71% of NASDAQ-100 (QQQ
) holdings, including all of the Magnificent 7 except for TSLA
, AMZN
, and GOOG
/GOOGL
. In other words, there is less than 3 in 10 likelihood of having selected NASDAQ-100 stocks that outperformed TQQQ
over the duration of the uptrend.
A | B | C | D | E | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
|
Market Cap | Symbol | %Chg since π1 | Close on π1 | Close |
2
|
188,115 M | QQQ | 8.61% | $474.42 | $515.27 |
3
|
117,675 M | APP | 284.67% | $85.58 | $329.20 |
4
|
83,373 M | MSTR | 151.42% | $131.93 | $331.70 |
5
|
181,991 M | PLTR | 118.55% | $31.22 | $68.23 |
6
|
1,317,537 M | TSLA | 84.43% | $214.14 | $394.94 |
7
|
102,261 M | MRVL | 70.53% | $69.33 | $118.23 |
8
|
65,179 M | TEAM | 66.51% | $146.83 | $244.49 |
9
|
45,834 M | AXON | 54.50% | $373.69 | $577.34 |
10
|
46,056 M | LULU | 53.16% | $256.55 | $392.92 |
11
|
25,930 M | WBD | 38.95% | $7.24 | $10.06 |
12
|
1,090,045 M | AVGO | 38.03% | $166.13 | $229.31 |
13
|
88,431 M | CRWD | 37.71% | $260.49 | $358.72 |
14
|
162,301 M | BKNG | 34.05% | $3,634.67 | $4,872.42 |
15
|
72,678 M | DASH | 33.33% | $130.29 | $173.72 |
16
|
376,612 M | NFLX | 31.93% | $663.22 | $875.00 |
17
|
74,706 M | FTNT | 30.84% | $73.40 | $96.04 |
18
|
87,822 M | PYPL | 29.44% | $67.94 | $87.94 |
19
|
78,942 M | CEG | 28.07% | $190.39 | $243.84 |
20
|
33,150 M | TTWO | 25.52% | $146.38 | $183.74 |
21
|
2,357,360 M | AMZN | 25.08% | $177.59 | $222.13 |
22
|
42,213 M | BKR | 23.83% | $35.08 | $43.44 |
23
|
76,499 M | MAR | 23.27% | $221.90 | $273.53 |
24
|
234,425 M | CSCO | 21.99% | $48.53 | $59.20 |
25
|
49,202 M | DDOG | 21.96% | $116.33 | $141.88 |
26
|
60,137 M | TTD | 20.92% | $100.50 | $121.52 |
27
|
2,347,701 M | GOOGL | 20.24% | $161.30 | $193.95 |
28
|
113,921 M | GILD | 19.91% | $74.34 | $89.14 |
29
|
2,364,104 M | GOOG | 19.75% | $163.17 | $195.39 |
30
|
63,372 M | ADSK | 18.45% | $250.21 | $296.37 |
31
|
54,999 M | PCAR | 17.92% | $92.01 | $108.50 |
32
|
42,016 M | TQQQ | 17.85% | $68.46 | $80.68 |
33
|
3,538,070 M | NVDA | 14.04% | $122.86 | $140.11 |
34
|
1,526,382 M | META | 13.66% | $537.33 | $610.72 |
35
|
190,661 M | ISRG | 13.30% | $480.17 | $544.02 |
36
|
38,296 M | XEL | 12.72% | $58.90 | $66.39 |
37
|
50,290 M | PAYX | 11.47% | $125.82 | $140.25 |
38
|
148,275 M | ARM | 11.32% | $130.44 | $145.20 |
39
|
147,294 M | HON | 10.94% | $198.46 | $220.17 |
40
|
254,274 M | TMUS | 10.73% | $194.63 | $215.52 |
41
|
118,851 M | ADP | 10.71% | $263.66 | $291.89 |
42
|
31,666 M | DXCM | 10.68% | $72.36 | $80.09 |
43
|
54,834 M | CPRT | 10.04% | $51.60 | $56.78 |
44
|
84,788 M | ABNB | 10.03% | $118.88 | $130.80 |
45
|
67,255 M | WDAY | 9.99% | $231.56 | $254.69 |
46
|
50,950 M | MNST | 9.81% | $46.99 | $51.60 |
47
|
41,070 M | FAST | 9.47% | $66.63 | $72.94 |
48
|
83,338 M | CDNS | 8.07% | $280.12 | $302.73 |
49
|
69,520 M | ORLY | 8.05% | $1,115.89 | $1,205.74 |
50
|
3,678,587 M | AAPL | 8.00% | $224.72 | $242.70 |
51
|
406,869 M | COST | 5.70% | $877.35 | $927.37 |
52
|
29,591 M | ANSS | 5.68% | $325.00 | $343.47 |
53
|
39,014 M | VRSK | 5.37% | $266.14 | $280.42 |
54
|
50,892 M | ROST | 4.62% | $147.80 | $154.63 |
55
|
38,234 M | EXC | 1.84% | $37.50 | $38.19 |
56
|
36,787 M | GEHC | 1.13% | $85.30 | $86.26 |
57
|
3,147,557 M | MSFT | 0.84% | $421.03 | $424.56 |
58
|
37,871 M | CTSH | 0.73% | $75.47 | $76.02 |
59
|
120,249 M | PANW | 0.69% | $171.64 | $172.83 |
60
|
74,990 M | CTAS | 0.37% | $191.94 | $192.65 |
61
|
19,744 M | MDB | -0.15% | $249.05 | $248.68 |
62
|
50,952 M | CHTR | -0.76% | $352.01 | $349.32 |
63
|
35,101 M | CCEP | -1.13% | $76.78 | $75.91 |
64
|
106,887 M | ADI | -1.44% | $223.67 | $220.44 |
65
|
28,515 M | ZS | -1.61% | $190.34 | $187.28 |
66
|
38,368 M | EA | -1.93% | $147.04 | $144.20 |
67
|
104,967 M | SBUX | -2.40% | $94.88 | $92.60 |
68
|
88,675 M | INTC | -3.91% | $20.69 | $19.88 |
69
|
176,412 M | INTU | -4.00% | $652.14 | $626.05 |
70
|
62,365 M | CSX | -4.25% | $33.63 | $32.20 |
71
|
29,620 M | CSGP | -4.31% | $74.55 | $71.34 |
72
|
49,023 M | AEP | -4.45% | $96.56 | $92.26 |
73
|
173,786 M | TXN | -5.09% | $201.93 | $191.66 |
74
|
144,146 M | CMCSA | -5.95% | $39.52 | $37.17 |
75
|
55,184 M | ROP | -6.64% | $546.57 | $510.30 |
76
|
100,131 M | MU | -7.05% | $106.95 | $99.41 |
77
|
196,891 M | LIN | -7.92% | $456.14 | $420.01 |
78
|
175,349 M | QCOM | -8.23% | $173.34 | $159.08 |
79
|
23,864 M | GFS | -8.39% | $45.43 | $41.62 |
80
|
76,317 M | SNPS | -8.44% | $548.28 | $502.00 |
81
|
38,624 M | ODFL | -8.91% | $197.14 | $179.58 |
82
|
34,026 M | IDXX | -10.95% | $485.52 | $432.36 |
83
|
42,783 M | KDP | -11.92% | $35.33 | $31.12 |
84
|
104,843 M | VRTX | -12.69% | $472.00 | $412.11 |
85
|
92,988 M | MELI | -12.89% | $1,996.44 | $1,739.00 |
86
|
49,918 M | FANG | -13.02% | $196.58 | $170.99 |
87
|
37,013 M | KHC | -13.25% | $34.19 | $29.66 |
88
|
96,643 M | LRCX | -13.45% | $89.01 | $77.04 |
89
|
205,318 M | PEP | -15.06% | $172.52 | $146.54 |
90
|
138,375 M | AMAT | -16.45% | $211.83 | $176.99 |
91
|
80,044 M | MDLZ | -17.06% | $70.28 | $58.29 |
92
|
53,083 M | NXPI | -17.19% | $253.25 | $209.72 |
93
|
203,451 M | AMD | -17.32% | $147.36 | $121.84 |
94
|
87,882 M | KLAC | -17.94% | $836.19 | $686.20 |
95
|
23,219 M | CDW | -18.27% | $221.87 | $181.34 |
96
|
140,414 M | AMGN | -18.80% | $325.39 | $264.21 |
97
|
280,886 M | ASML | -19.85% | $928.25 | $743.98 |
98
|
205,447 M | AZN | -21.58% | $84.90 | $66.58 |
99
|
27,213 M | ON | -23.15% | $75.88 | $58.31 |
100
|
189,537 M | ADBE | -24.29% | $554.16 | $419.58 |
101
|
22,180 M | BIIB | -25.23% | $201.63 | $150.75 |
102
|
30,969 M | MCHP | -30.65% | $81.30 | $56.38 |
103
|
134,461 M | PDD | -30.85% | $145.08 | $100.32 |
104
|
78,917 M | REGN | -37.58% | $1,175.33 | $733.59 |