Wed. Jan. 8th 2025

Uptrend ends, downtrend begins πŸ“‰

Market Signal-2 WEAK BEARISH

January 8th's Market Signal value of -2 is the first negative value after 100 consecutive days of positive values (Aug. 15th 2024 through Jan. 7th 2025).

This marks the end of the uptrend and the first day of a new downtrend.

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Investing in TQQQ per Raincheck Fund's Market Signal over the uptrend that just ended outperformed 7 in 10 NASDAQ-100 stocks, and outperformed QQQ by more than 2x.

πŸ“ˆ100 day uptrend concludes

Had one opened a position in QQQ or TQQQ after market close on the first day of the uptrend (Aug. 15th 2024) and held until the uptrend ended (Jan. 8th 2025) the returns would be as follows:

  • QQQ +8.61%
  • TQQQ +17.85%

The table below shows the QQQ chart over this time frame, as well as the returns of QQQ and TQQQ after market close each day.

A B C D E F G
1
Market Signal Trend Count QQQ Close QQQ %chg since πŸ“ˆ1 TQQQ close TQQQ %chg since πŸ“ˆ1 Date
2
1 πŸ“ˆ1 $474.42 0.00% $68.46 0.00% Thu 8/15/24
3
3 πŸ“ˆ2 $475.02 0.13% $68.64 0.26% Fri 8/16/24
4
4 πŸ“ˆ3 $481.27 1.44% $71.30 4.15% Mon 8/19/24
5
3 πŸ“ˆ4 $480.26 1.23% $70.86 3.51% Tue 8/20/24
6
3 πŸ“ˆ5 $482.50 1.70% $71.83 4.92% Wed 8/21/24
7
7 πŸ“ˆ6 $474.85 0.09% $68.38 -0.12% Thu 8/22/24
8
8 πŸ“ˆ7 $480.00 1.18% $70.53 3.02% Fri 8/23/24
9
7 πŸ“ˆ8 $475.34 0.19% $68.46 0.00% Mon 8/26/24
10
8 πŸ“ˆ9 $476.76 0.49% $69.04 0.85% Tue 8/27/24
11
5 πŸ“ˆ10 $471.35 -0.65% $66.70 -2.57% Wed 8/28/24
12
5 πŸ“ˆ11 $470.66 -0.79% $66.35 -3.08% Thu 8/29/24
13
7 πŸ“ˆ12 $476.27 0.39% $68.61 0.22% Fri 8/30/24
14
4 πŸ“ˆ13 $461.81 -2.66% $62.35 -8.92% Tue 9/3/24
15
2 πŸ“ˆ14 $460.61 -2.91% $61.82 -9.70% Wed 9/4/24
16
2 πŸ“ˆ15 $461.04 -2.82% $62.02 -9.41% Thu 9/5/24
17
1 πŸ“ˆ16 $448.69 -5.42% $56.99 -16.75% Fri 9/6/24
18
1 πŸ“ˆ17 $454.46 -4.21% $59.11 -13.66% Mon 9/9/24
19
1 πŸ“ˆ18 $458.66 -3.32% $60.70 -11.34% Tue 9/10/24
20
1 πŸ“ˆ19 $468.62 -1.22% $64.57 -5.68% Wed 9/11/24
21
5 πŸ“ˆ20 $473.22 -0.25% $66.48 -2.89% Thu 9/12/24
22
5 πŸ“ˆ21 $475.34 0.19% $67.35 -1.62% Fri 9/13/24
23
1 πŸ“ˆ22 $473.24 -0.25% $66.45 -2.94% Mon 9/16/24
24
1 πŸ“ˆ23 $473.49 -0.20% $66.49 -2.88% Tue 9/17/24
25
3 πŸ“ˆ24 $471.44 -0.63% $65.62 -4.15% Wed 9/18/24
26
3 πŸ“ˆ25 $483.36 1.88% $70.58 3.10% Thu 9/19/24
27
7 πŸ“ˆ26 $482.44 1.69% $70.13 2.44% Fri 9/20/24
28
7 πŸ“ˆ27 $483.04 1.82% $70.65 3.20% Mon 9/23/24
29
7 πŸ“ˆ28 $485.37 2.31% $71.65 4.66% Tue 9/24/24
30
7 πŸ“ˆ29 $485.95 2.43% $71.67 4.69% Wed 9/25/24
31
7 πŸ“ˆ30 $489.47 3.17% $73.19 6.91% Thu 9/26/24
32
7 πŸ“ˆ31 $486.75 2.60% $71.93 5.07% Fri 9/27/24
33
7 πŸ“ˆ32 $488.07 2.88% $72.49 5.89% Mon 9/30/24
34
6 πŸ“ˆ33 $481.27 1.44% $69.42 1.40% Tue 10/1/24
35
6 πŸ“ˆ34 $481.95 1.59% $69.68 1.78% Wed 10/2/24
36
6 πŸ“ˆ35 $481.59 1.51% $69.52 1.55% Thu 10/3/24
37
7 πŸ“ˆ36 $487.32 2.72% $71.97 5.13% Fri 10/4/24
38
6 πŸ“ˆ37 $482.10 1.62% $69.60 1.67% Mon 10/7/24
39
7 πŸ“ˆ38 $489.30 3.14% $72.62 6.08% Tue 10/8/24
40
8 πŸ“ˆ39 $493.15 3.95% $74.37 8.63% Wed 10/9/24
41
8 πŸ“ˆ40 $492.59 3.83% $74.11 8.25% Thu 10/10/24
42
8 πŸ“ˆ41 $493.36 3.99% $74.30 8.53% Fri 10/11/24
43
8 πŸ“ˆ42 $497.50 4.86% $76.20 11.31% Mon 10/14/24
44
7 πŸ“ˆ43 $490.85 3.46% $73.16 6.87% Tue 10/15/24
45
8 πŸ“ˆ44 $490.91 3.48% $73.12 6.81% Wed 10/16/24
46
8 πŸ“ˆ45 $491.25 3.55% $73.34 7.13% Thu 10/17/24
47
7 πŸ“ˆ46 $494.47 4.23% $74.64 9.03% Fri 10/18/24
48
7 πŸ“ˆ47 $495.42 4.43% $75.05 9.63% Mon 10/21/24
49
7 πŸ“ˆ48 $495.96 4.54% $75.27 9.95% Tue 10/22/24
50
6 πŸ“ˆ49 $488.36 2.94% $71.79 4.86% Wed 10/23/24
51
6 πŸ“ˆ50 $492.32 3.77% $71.79 4.86% Thu 10/24/24
52
7 πŸ“ˆ51 $495.32 4.41% $74.74 9.17% Fri 10/25/24
53
7 πŸ“ˆ52 $495.40 4.42% $74.81 9.28% Mon 10/28/24
54
7 πŸ“ˆ53 $500.16 5.43% $76.88 12.30% Tue 10/29/24
55
7 πŸ“ˆ54 $496.47 4.65% $75.14 9.76% Wed 10/30/24
56
5 πŸ“ˆ55 $483.85 1.99% $69.45 1.45% Thu 10/31/24
57
3 πŸ“ˆ56 $487.43 2.74% $70.97 3.67% Fri 11/1/24
58
5 πŸ“ˆ57 $486.01 2.44% $70.27 2.64% Mon 11/4/24
59
7 πŸ“ˆ58 $492.21 3.75% $72.94 6.54% Tue 11/5/24
60
8 πŸ“ˆ59 $505.58 6.57% $78.86 15.19% Wed 11/6/24
61
8 πŸ“ˆ60 $513.54 8.25% $82.55 20.58% Thu 11/7/24
62
7 πŸ“ˆ61 $514.14 8.37% $82.75 20.87% Fri 11/8/24
63
8 πŸ“ˆ62 $513.84 8.31% $82.60 20.65% Mon 11/11/24
64
8 πŸ“ˆ63 $512.91 8.11% $82.15 20.00% Tue 11/12/24
65
8 πŸ“ˆ64 $512.25 7.97% $81.79 19.47% Wed 11/13/24
66
8 πŸ“ˆ65 $508.69 7.09% $80.06 16.64% Thu 11/14/24
67
5 πŸ“ˆ66 $496.57 4.67% $74.27 8.49% Fri 11/15/24
68
6 πŸ“ˆ67 $500.02 5.40% $75.77 10.68% Mon 11/18/24
69
6 πŸ“ˆ68 $503.46 6.12% $77.29 12.90% Tue 11/19/24
70
7 πŸ“ˆ69 $503.17 6.06% $77.20 12.77% Wed 11/20/24
71
7 πŸ“ˆ70 $504.98 6.44% $77.96 13.88% Thu 11/21/24
72
7 πŸ“ˆ71 $505.79 6.61% $78.25 14.30% Fri 11/22/24
73
8 πŸ“ˆ72 $506.59 6.78% $78.61 14.83% Mon 11/25/24
74
8 πŸ“ˆ73 $509.31 7.35% $79.83 16.61% Tue 11/26/24
75
7 πŸ“ˆ74 $505.30 6.51% $77.90 13.79% Wed 11/27/24
76
7 πŸ“ˆ75 $509.74 7.44% $79.89 16.70% Fri 11/29/24
77
8 πŸ“ˆ76 $515.29 8.61% $82.48 20.48% Mon 12/2/24
78
7 πŸ“ˆ77 $516.87 8.95% $83.21 21.55% Tue 12/3/24
79
8 πŸ“ˆ78 $523.26 10.29% $86.25 25.99% Wed 12/4/24
80
8 πŸ“ˆ79 $521.81 9.99% $85.54 24.95% Thu 12/5/24
81
8 πŸ“ˆ80 $526.48 10.97% $87.74 28.16% Fri 12/6/24
82
7 πŸ“ˆ81 $522.38 10.11% $85.69 25.17% Mon 12/9/24
83
7 πŸ“ˆ82 $520.60 9.73% $84.76 23.81% Tue 12/10/24
84
8 πŸ“ˆ83 $529.92 11.70% $89.29 30.43% Wed 12/11/24
85
7 πŸ“ˆ84 $526.50 10.98% $87.52 27.84% Thu 12/12/24
86
7 πŸ“ˆ85 $530.53 11.83% $89.40 30.59% Fri 12/13/24
87
7 πŸ“ˆ86 $538.17 13.44% $93.29 36.27% Mon 12/16/24
88
7 πŸ“ˆ87 $535.80 12.94% $92.04 34.44% Tue 12/17/24
89
3 πŸ“ˆ88 $516.47 8.86% $82.09 19.91% Wed 12/18/24
90
3 πŸ“ˆ89 $514.17 8.38% $80.93 18.22% Thu 12/19/24
91
4 πŸ“ˆ90 $518.66 9.33% $83.03 21.28% Fri 12/20/24
92
4 πŸ“ˆ91 $522.87 10.21% $85.06 24.25% Mon 12/23/24
93
5 πŸ“ˆ92 $529.96 11.71% $88.44 29.18% Tue 12/24/24
94
5 πŸ“ˆ93 $529.60 11.63% $88.25 28.91% Thu 12/26/24
95
4 πŸ“ˆ94 $522.56 10.15% $84.66 23.66% Fri 12/27/24
96
3 πŸ“ˆ95 $515.61 8.68% $81.26 18.70% Mon 12/30/24
97
2 πŸ“ˆ96 $511.23 7.76% $79.13 15.59% Tue 12/31/24
98
2 πŸ“ˆ97 $510.23 7.55% $78.63 14.86% Thu 1/2/25
99
3 πŸ“ˆ98 $518.58 9.31% $82.40 20.36% Fri 1/3/25
100
5 πŸ“ˆ99 $524.54 10.56% $85.21 24.47% Mon 1/6/25
101
2 πŸ“ˆ100 $515.18 8.59% $80.62 17.76% Tue 1/7/25
102
-2 πŸ“‰1 $515.27 8.61% $80.68 17.85% Wed 1/8/25

Market Signal, Trend Count, closing prices, and return (%) over current uptrend


TQQQ vs QQQ Holdings

The table below compares TQQQ's returns to QQQ and its holdings over the duration of the uptrend that just ended.

TQQQ outperformed QQQ over this time frame by +9.24% (their returns were +17.85% and +8.61% respectively). As a ratio however, TQQQ's return was more than 2x QQQ's. For example, a $10,000 investment in TQQQ and QQQ over this timeframe would have returned $1785 and $861 respectively.

Additionally, TQQQ outperformed 71% of NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) holdings, including all of the Magnificent 7 except for TSLA, AMZN, and GOOG/GOOGL. In other words, there is less than 3 in 10 likelihood of having selected NASDAQ-100 stocks that outperformed TQQQ over the duration of the uptrend.

A B C D E
1
Market Cap Symbol %Chg since πŸ“ˆ1 Close on πŸ“ˆ1 Close
2
188,115 M QQQ 8.61% $474.42 $515.27
3
117,675 M APP 284.67% $85.58 $329.20
4
83,373 M MSTR 151.42% $131.93 $331.70
5
181,991 M PLTR 118.55% $31.22 $68.23
6
1,317,537 M TSLA 84.43% $214.14 $394.94
7
102,261 M MRVL 70.53% $69.33 $118.23
8
65,179 M TEAM 66.51% $146.83 $244.49
9
45,834 M AXON 54.50% $373.69 $577.34
10
46,056 M LULU 53.16% $256.55 $392.92
11
25,930 M WBD 38.95% $7.24 $10.06
12
1,090,045 M AVGO 38.03% $166.13 $229.31
13
88,431 M CRWD 37.71% $260.49 $358.72
14
162,301 M BKNG 34.05% $3,634.67 $4,872.42
15
72,678 M DASH 33.33% $130.29 $173.72
16
376,612 M NFLX 31.93% $663.22 $875.00
17
74,706 M FTNT 30.84% $73.40 $96.04
18
87,822 M PYPL 29.44% $67.94 $87.94
19
78,942 M CEG 28.07% $190.39 $243.84
20
33,150 M TTWO 25.52% $146.38 $183.74
21
2,357,360 M AMZN 25.08% $177.59 $222.13
22
42,213 M BKR 23.83% $35.08 $43.44
23
76,499 M MAR 23.27% $221.90 $273.53
24
234,425 M CSCO 21.99% $48.53 $59.20
25
49,202 M DDOG 21.96% $116.33 $141.88
26
60,137 M TTD 20.92% $100.50 $121.52
27
2,347,701 M GOOGL 20.24% $161.30 $193.95
28
113,921 M GILD 19.91% $74.34 $89.14
29
2,364,104 M GOOG 19.75% $163.17 $195.39
30
63,372 M ADSK 18.45% $250.21 $296.37
31
54,999 M PCAR 17.92% $92.01 $108.50
32
42,016 M TQQQ 17.85% $68.46 $80.68
33
3,538,070 M NVDA 14.04% $122.86 $140.11
34
1,526,382 M META 13.66% $537.33 $610.72
35
190,661 M ISRG 13.30% $480.17 $544.02
36
38,296 M XEL 12.72% $58.90 $66.39
37
50,290 M PAYX 11.47% $125.82 $140.25
38
148,275 M ARM 11.32% $130.44 $145.20
39
147,294 M HON 10.94% $198.46 $220.17
40
254,274 M TMUS 10.73% $194.63 $215.52
41
118,851 M ADP 10.71% $263.66 $291.89
42
31,666 M DXCM 10.68% $72.36 $80.09
43
54,834 M CPRT 10.04% $51.60 $56.78
44
84,788 M ABNB 10.03% $118.88 $130.80
45
67,255 M WDAY 9.99% $231.56 $254.69
46
50,950 M MNST 9.81% $46.99 $51.60
47
41,070 M FAST 9.47% $66.63 $72.94
48
83,338 M CDNS 8.07% $280.12 $302.73
49
69,520 M ORLY 8.05% $1,115.89 $1,205.74
50
3,678,587 M AAPL 8.00% $224.72 $242.70
51
406,869 M COST 5.70% $877.35 $927.37
52
29,591 M ANSS 5.68% $325.00 $343.47
53
39,014 M VRSK 5.37% $266.14 $280.42
54
50,892 M ROST 4.62% $147.80 $154.63
55
38,234 M EXC 1.84% $37.50 $38.19
56
36,787 M GEHC 1.13% $85.30 $86.26
57
3,147,557 M MSFT 0.84% $421.03 $424.56
58
37,871 M CTSH 0.73% $75.47 $76.02
59
120,249 M PANW 0.69% $171.64 $172.83
60
74,990 M CTAS 0.37% $191.94 $192.65
61
19,744 M MDB -0.15% $249.05 $248.68
62
50,952 M CHTR -0.76% $352.01 $349.32
63
35,101 M CCEP -1.13% $76.78 $75.91
64
106,887 M ADI -1.44% $223.67 $220.44
65
28,515 M ZS -1.61% $190.34 $187.28
66
38,368 M EA -1.93% $147.04 $144.20
67
104,967 M SBUX -2.40% $94.88 $92.60
68
88,675 M INTC -3.91% $20.69 $19.88
69
176,412 M INTU -4.00% $652.14 $626.05
70
62,365 M CSX -4.25% $33.63 $32.20
71
29,620 M CSGP -4.31% $74.55 $71.34
72
49,023 M AEP -4.45% $96.56 $92.26
73
173,786 M TXN -5.09% $201.93 $191.66
74
144,146 M CMCSA -5.95% $39.52 $37.17
75
55,184 M ROP -6.64% $546.57 $510.30
76
100,131 M MU -7.05% $106.95 $99.41
77
196,891 M LIN -7.92% $456.14 $420.01
78
175,349 M QCOM -8.23% $173.34 $159.08
79
23,864 M GFS -8.39% $45.43 $41.62
80
76,317 M SNPS -8.44% $548.28 $502.00
81
38,624 M ODFL -8.91% $197.14 $179.58
82
34,026 M IDXX -10.95% $485.52 $432.36
83
42,783 M KDP -11.92% $35.33 $31.12
84
104,843 M VRTX -12.69% $472.00 $412.11
85
92,988 M MELI -12.89% $1,996.44 $1,739.00
86
49,918 M FANG -13.02% $196.58 $170.99
87
37,013 M KHC -13.25% $34.19 $29.66
88
96,643 M LRCX -13.45% $89.01 $77.04
89
205,318 M PEP -15.06% $172.52 $146.54
90
138,375 M AMAT -16.45% $211.83 $176.99
91
80,044 M MDLZ -17.06% $70.28 $58.29
92
53,083 M NXPI -17.19% $253.25 $209.72
93
203,451 M AMD -17.32% $147.36 $121.84
94
87,882 M KLAC -17.94% $836.19 $686.20
95
23,219 M CDW -18.27% $221.87 $181.34
96
140,414 M AMGN -18.80% $325.39 $264.21
97
280,886 M ASML -19.85% $928.25 $743.98
98
205,447 M AZN -21.58% $84.90 $66.58
99
27,213 M ON -23.15% $75.88 $58.31
100
189,537 M ADBE -24.29% $554.16 $419.58
101
22,180 M BIIB -25.23% $201.63 $150.75
102
30,969 M MCHP -30.65% $81.30 $56.38
103
134,461 M PDD -30.85% $145.08 $100.32
104
78,917 M REGN -37.58% $1,175.33 $733.59
πŸ’΅
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