Jan. 3rd 2025
Uptrend continues to degrade
Market Signal: +3
NEUTRAL/WEAK BULLISH
The current uptrend continues to degrade. Following Christmas, the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ
) faced 5 straight days of losses. The Santa Claus rally did not materialize.
The Market Signal is fighting to stay above 0
; it seems like the current uptrend is on its last leg, but only time will tell.
PepsiCo Inc. (
PEP
) and Adobe Inc. (ADBE
) closed at 52-week lows, while zero NASDAQ-100 holdings closed at 52-week highs. - A lack of new highs (see above) demonstrates a lack of strength in the market
- A Market Signal value of
+3
is a neutral to weak bullish indication, another indication of lacking strength QQQ
andTQQQ
have given back -3.63% and -14.08% in the 11 trading days since the pullback on Dec. 18th. This is a stark contrast to the +6.82% and +21.54% returns over the 20 consecutive days ofSTRONG BULLISH
Market Signal from Nov. 20th 2024 to Dec. 17th 2024.
On the weekly chart, QQQ
appears to have found some support at $515.58 (a key level mentioned in prior posts), however, as mentioned before, if this level is not held, the uptrend will likely end.

QQQ
finding support at 515.68π98th day of uptrend
Day π1 of current uptrend occurred on Aug. 15 2024.
QQQ
+9.31% since start of current uptrendTQQQ
+20.36% since start of current uptrend
A | B | C | D | E | F | G | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
|
Market Signal | Trend Count | QQQ Close | QQQ %chg since π1 | TQQQ close | TQQQ %chg since π1 | Date |
2
|
1 | π1 | $474.42 | 0.00% | $68.46 | 0.00% | Thu 8/15/24 |
3
|
3 | π2 | $475.02 | 0.13% | $68.64 | 0.26% | Fri 8/16/24 |
4
|
4 | π3 | $481.27 | 1.44% | $71.30 | 4.15% | Mon 8/19/24 |
5
|
3 | π4 | $480.26 | 1.23% | $70.86 | 3.51% | Tue 8/20/24 |
6
|
3 | π5 | $482.50 | 1.70% | $71.83 | 4.92% | Wed 8/21/24 |
7
|
7 | π6 | $474.85 | 0.09% | $68.38 | -0.12% | Thu 8/22/24 |
8
|
8 | π7 | $480.00 | 1.18% | $70.53 | 3.02% | Fri 8/23/24 |
9
|
7 | π8 | $475.34 | 0.19% | $68.46 | 0.00% | Mon 8/26/24 |
10
|
8 | π9 | $476.76 | 0.49% | $69.04 | 0.85% | Tue 8/27/24 |
11
|
5 | π10 | $471.35 | -0.65% | $66.70 | -2.57% | Wed 8/28/24 |
12
|
5 | π11 | $470.66 | -0.79% | $66.35 | -3.08% | Thu 8/29/24 |
13
|
7 | π12 | $476.27 | 0.39% | $68.61 | 0.22% | Fri 8/30/24 |
14
|
4 | π13 | $461.81 | -2.66% | $62.35 | -8.92% | Tue 9/3/24 |
15
|
2 | π14 | $460.61 | -2.91% | $61.82 | -9.70% | Wed 9/4/24 |
16
|
2 | π15 | $461.04 | -2.82% | $62.02 | -9.41% | Thu 9/5/24 |
17
|
1 | π16 | $448.69 | -5.42% | $56.99 | -16.75% | Fri 9/6/24 |
18
|
1 | π17 | $454.46 | -4.21% | $59.11 | -13.66% | Mon 9/9/24 |
19
|
1 | π18 | $458.66 | -3.32% | $60.70 | -11.34% | Tue 9/10/24 |
20
|
1 | π19 | $468.62 | -1.22% | $64.57 | -5.68% | Wed 9/11/24 |
21
|
5 | π20 | $473.22 | -0.25% | $66.48 | -2.89% | Thu 9/12/24 |
22
|
5 | π21 | $475.34 | 0.19% | $67.35 | -1.62% | Fri 9/13/24 |
23
|
1 | π22 | $473.24 | -0.25% | $66.45 | -2.94% | Mon 9/16/24 |
24
|
1 | π23 | $473.49 | -0.20% | $66.49 | -2.88% | Tue 9/17/24 |
25
|
3 | π24 | $471.44 | -0.63% | $65.62 | -4.15% | Wed 9/18/24 |
26
|
3 | π25 | $483.36 | 1.88% | $70.58 | 3.10% | Thu 9/19/24 |
27
|
7 | π26 | $482.44 | 1.69% | $70.13 | 2.44% | Fri 9/20/24 |
28
|
7 | π27 | $483.04 | 1.82% | $70.65 | 3.20% | Mon 9/23/24 |
29
|
7 | π28 | $485.37 | 2.31% | $71.65 | 4.66% | Tue 9/24/24 |
30
|
7 | π29 | $485.95 | 2.43% | $71.67 | 4.69% | Wed 9/25/24 |
31
|
7 | π30 | $489.47 | 3.17% | $73.19 | 6.91% | Thu 9/26/24 |
32
|
7 | π31 | $486.75 | 2.60% | $71.93 | 5.07% | Fri 9/27/24 |
33
|
7 | π32 | $488.07 | 2.88% | $72.49 | 5.89% | Mon 9/30/24 |
34
|
6 | π33 | $481.27 | 1.44% | $69.42 | 1.40% | Tue 10/1/24 |
35
|
6 | π34 | $481.95 | 1.59% | $69.68 | 1.78% | Wed 10/2/24 |
36
|
6 | π35 | $481.59 | 1.51% | $69.52 | 1.55% | Thu 10/3/24 |
37
|
7 | π36 | $487.32 | 2.72% | $71.97 | 5.13% | Fri 10/4/24 |
38
|
6 | π37 | $482.10 | 1.62% | $69.60 | 1.67% | Mon 10/7/24 |
39
|
7 | π38 | $489.30 | 3.14% | $72.62 | 6.08% | Tue 10/8/24 |
40
|
8 | π39 | $493.15 | 3.95% | $74.37 | 8.63% | Wed 10/9/24 |
41
|
8 | π40 | $492.59 | 3.83% | $74.11 | 8.25% | Thu 10/10/24 |
42
|
8 | π41 | $493.36 | 3.99% | $74.30 | 8.53% | Fri 10/11/24 |
43
|
8 | π42 | $497.50 | 4.86% | $76.20 | 11.31% | Mon 10/14/24 |
44
|
7 | π43 | $490.85 | 3.46% | $73.16 | 6.87% | Tue 10/15/24 |
45
|
8 | π44 | $490.91 | 3.48% | $73.12 | 6.81% | Wed 10/16/24 |
46
|
8 | π45 | $491.25 | 3.55% | $73.34 | 7.13% | Thu 10/17/24 |
47
|
7 | π46 | $494.47 | 4.23% | $74.64 | 9.03% | Fri 10/18/24 |
48
|
7 | π47 | $495.42 | 4.43% | $75.05 | 9.63% | Mon 10/21/24 |
49
|
7 | π48 | $495.96 | 4.54% | $75.27 | 9.95% | Tue 10/22/24 |
50
|
6 | π49 | $488.36 | 2.94% | $71.79 | 4.86% | Wed 10/23/24 |
51
|
6 | π50 | $492.32 | 3.77% | $71.79 | 4.86% | Thu 10/24/24 |
52
|
7 | π51 | $495.32 | 4.41% | $74.74 | 9.17% | Fri 10/25/24 |
53
|
7 | π52 | $495.40 | 4.42% | $74.81 | 9.28% | Mon 10/28/24 |
54
|
7 | π53 | $500.16 | 5.43% | $76.88 | 12.30% | Tue 10/29/24 |
55
|
7 | π54 | $496.47 | 4.65% | $75.14 | 9.76% | Wed 10/30/24 |
56
|
5 | π55 | $483.85 | 1.99% | $69.45 | 1.45% | Thu 10/31/24 |
57
|
3 | π56 | $487.43 | 2.74% | $70.97 | 3.67% | Fri 11/1/24 |
58
|
5 | π57 | $486.01 | 2.44% | $70.27 | 2.64% | Mon 11/4/24 |
59
|
7 | π58 | $492.21 | 3.75% | $72.94 | 6.54% | Tue 11/5/24 |
60
|
8 | π59 | $505.58 | 6.57% | $78.86 | 15.19% | Wed 11/6/24 |
61
|
8 | π60 | $513.54 | 8.25% | $82.55 | 20.58% | Thu 11/7/24 |
62
|
7 | π61 | $514.14 | 8.37% | $82.75 | 20.87% | Fri 11/8/24 |
63
|
8 | π62 | $513.84 | 8.31% | $82.60 | 20.65% | Mon 11/11/24 |
64
|
8 | π63 | $512.91 | 8.11% | $82.15 | 20.00% | Tue 11/12/24 |
65
|
8 | π64 | $512.25 | 7.97% | $81.79 | 19.47% | Wed 11/13/24 |
66
|
8 | π65 | $508.69 | 7.09% | $80.06 | 16.64% | Thu 11/14/24 |
67
|
5 | π66 | $496.57 | 4.67% | $74.27 | 8.49% | Fri 11/15/24 |
68
|
6 | π67 | $500.02 | 5.40% | $75.77 | 10.68% | Mon 11/18/24 |
69
|
6 | π68 | $503.46 | 6.12% | $77.29 | 12.90% | Tue 11/19/24 |
70
|
7 | π69 | $503.17 | 6.06% | $77.20 | 12.77% | Wed 11/20/24 |
71
|
7 | π70 | $504.98 | 6.44% | $77.96 | 13.88% | Thu 11/21/24 |
72
|
7 | π71 | $505.79 | 6.61% | $78.25 | 14.30% | Fri 11/22/24 |
73
|
8 | π72 | $506.59 | 6.78% | $78.61 | 14.83% | Mon 11/25/24 |
74
|
8 | π73 | $509.31 | 7.35% | $79.83 | 16.61% | Tue 11/26/24 |
75
|
7 | π74 | $505.30 | 6.51% | $77.90 | 13.79% | Wed 11/27/24 |
76
|
7 | π75 | $509.74 | 7.44% | $79.89 | 16.70% | Fri 11/29/24 |
77
|
8 | π76 | $515.29 | 8.61% | $82.48 | 20.48% | Mon 12/2/24 |
78
|
7 | π77 | $516.87 | 8.95% | $83.21 | 21.55% | Tue 12/3/24 |
79
|
8 | π78 | $523.26 | 10.29% | $86.25 | 25.99% | Wed 12/4/24 |
80
|
8 | π79 | $521.81 | 9.99% | $85.54 | 24.95% | Thu 12/5/24 |
81
|
8 | π80 | $526.48 | 10.97% | $87.74 | 28.16% | Fri 12/6/24 |
82
|
7 | π81 | $522.38 | 10.11% | $85.69 | 25.17% | Mon 12/9/24 |
83
|
7 | π82 | $520.60 | 9.73% | $84.76 | 23.81% | Tue 12/10/24 |
84
|
8 | π83 | $529.92 | 11.70% | $89.29 | 30.43% | Wed 12/11/24 |
85
|
7 | π84 | $526.50 | 10.98% | $87.52 | 27.84% | Thu 12/12/24 |
86
|
7 | π85 | $530.53 | 11.83% | $89.40 | 30.59% | Fri 12/13/24 |
87
|
7 | π86 | $538.17 | 13.44% | $93.29 | 36.27% | Mon 12/16/24 |
88
|
7 | π87 | $535.80 | 12.94% | $92.04 | 34.44% | Tue 12/17/24 |
89
|
3 | π88 | $516.47 | 8.86% | $82.09 | 19.91% | Wed 12/18/24 |
90
|
3 | π89 | $514.17 | 8.38% | $80.93 | 18.22% | Thu 12/19/24 |
91
|
4 | π90 | $518.66 | 9.33% | $83.03 | 21.28% | Fri 12/20/24 |
92
|
4 | π91 | $522.87 | 10.21% | $85.06 | 24.25% | Mon 12/23/24 |
93
|
5 | π92 | $529.96 | 11.71% | $88.44 | 29.18% | Tue 12/24/24 |
94
|
5 | π93 | $529.60 | 11.63% | $88.25 | 28.91% | Thu 12/26/24 |
95
|
4 | π94 | $522.56 | 10.15% | $84.66 | 23.66% | Fri 12/27/24 |
96
|
3 | π95 | $515.61 | 8.68% | $81.26 | 18.70% | Mon 12/30/24 |
97
|
2 | π96 | $511.23 | 7.76% | $79.13 | 15.59% | Tue 12/31/24 |
98
|
2 | π97 | $510.23 | 7.55% | $78.63 | 14.86% | Thu 1/2/25 |
99
|
3 | π98 | $518.58 | 9.31% | $82.40 | 20.36% | Fri 1/3/25 |
Market Signal, Trend Count, closing prices, and return (%) over current uptrend
TQQQ vs QQQ Holdings
TQQQ
is outperforming 75% of QQQ holdings since day π1 of current uptrend (Aug. 15 2024).
A | B | C | D | E | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
|
Market Cap | Symbol | %Chg since π1 | Close on π1 | Close |
2
|
188,115 M | QQQ | 9.31% | $474.42 | $518.58 |
3
|
117,675 M | APP | 309.73% | $85.58 | $350.65 |
4
|
83,373 M | MSTR | 157.45% | $131.93 | $339.66 |
5
|
181,991 M | PLTR | 155.89% | $31.22 | $79.89 |
6
|
1,317,537 M | TSLA | 91.67% | $214.14 | $410.44 |
7
|
102,261 M | MRVL | 70.46% | $69.33 | $118.18 |
8
|
65,179 M | TEAM | 70.45% | $146.83 | $250.27 |
9
|
45,834 M | AXON | 60.84% | $373.69 | $601.06 |
10
|
46,056 M | LULU | 47.41% | $256.55 | $378.18 |
11
|
25,930 M | WBD | 45.99% | $7.24 | $10.57 |
12
|
1,090,045 M | AVGO | 39.98% | $166.13 | $232.55 |
13
|
88,431 M | CRWD | 37.82% | $260.49 | $359.02 |
14
|
162,301 M | BKNG | 34.92% | $3,634.67 | $4,903.85 |
15
|
72,678 M | DASH | 34.29% | $130.29 | $174.96 |
16
|
376,612 M | NFLX | 32.84% | $663.22 | $881.05 |
17
|
74,706 M | FTNT | 32.79% | $73.40 | $97.47 |
18
|
78,942 M | CEG | 32.57% | $190.39 | $252.40 |
19
|
33,150 M | TTWO | 28.95% | $146.38 | $188.75 |
20
|
87,822 M | PYPL | 28.94% | $67.94 | $87.60 |
21
|
2,357,360 M | AMZN | 26.24% | $177.59 | $224.19 |
22
|
49,202 M | DDOG | 24.50% | $116.33 | $144.83 |
23
|
76,499 M | MAR | 24.06% | $221.90 | $275.28 |
24
|
113,921 M | GILD | 22.96% | $74.34 | $91.41 |
25
|
42,213 M | BKR | 21.61% | $35.08 | $42.66 |
26
|
234,425 M | CSCO | 21.29% | $48.53 | $58.86 |
27
|
60,137 M | TTD | 21.23% | $100.50 | $121.84 |
28
|
42,016 M | TQQQ | 20.36% | $68.46 | $82.40 |
29
|
2,347,701 M | GOOGL | 18.90% | $161.30 | $191.79 |
30
|
2,364,104 M | GOOG | 18.36% | $163.17 | $193.13 |
31
|
3,538,070 M | NVDA | 17.59% | $122.86 | $144.47 |
32
|
63,372 M | ADSK | 17.53% | $250.21 | $294.06 |
33
|
84,788 M | ABNB | 14.16% | $118.88 | $135.71 |
34
|
147,294 M | HON | 14.14% | $198.46 | $226.52 |
35
|
54,999 M | PCAR | 14.01% | $92.01 | $104.90 |
36
|
38,296 M | XEL | 13.23% | $58.90 | $66.69 |
37
|
254,274 M | TMUS | 12.58% | $194.63 | $219.11 |
38
|
1,526,382 M | META | 12.52% | $537.33 | $604.63 |
39
|
31,666 M | DXCM | 12.04% | $72.36 | $81.07 |
40
|
50,950 M | MNST | 11.49% | $46.99 | $52.39 |
41
|
190,661 M | ISRG | 11.48% | $480.17 | $535.30 |
42
|
50,290 M | PAYX | 11.01% | $125.82 | $139.67 |
43
|
118,851 M | ADP | 10.63% | $263.66 | $291.69 |
44
|
54,834 M | CPRT | 10.29% | $51.60 | $56.91 |
45
|
67,255 M | WDAY | 9.19% | $231.56 | $252.84 |
46
|
83,338 M | CDNS | 8.47% | $280.12 | $303.86 |
47
|
3,678,587 M | AAPL | 8.29% | $224.72 | $243.36 |
48
|
148,275 M | ARM | 8.16% | $130.44 | $141.08 |
49
|
69,520 M | ORLY | 7.92% | $1,115.89 | $1,204.22 |
50
|
41,070 M | FAST | 7.59% | $66.63 | $71.69 |
51
|
120,249 M | PANW | 6.77% | $171.64 | $183.25 |
52
|
406,869 M | COST | 4.47% | $877.35 | $916.58 |
53
|
50,892 M | ROST | 4.36% | $147.80 | $154.25 |
54
|
29,591 M | ANSS | 4.12% | $325.00 | $338.38 |
55
|
39,014 M | VRSK | 3.81% | $266.14 | $276.28 |
56
|
50,952 M | CHTR | 1.80% | $352.01 | $358.35 |
57
|
38,234 M | EXC | 1.47% | $37.50 | $38.05 |
58
|
37,871 M | CTSH | 1.21% | $75.47 | $76.38 |
59
|
3,147,557 M | MSFT | 0.55% | $421.03 | $423.35 |
60
|
38,368 M | EA | -0.51% | $147.04 | $146.29 |
61
|
88,675 M | INTC | -0.63% | $20.69 | $20.56 |
62
|
35,101 M | CCEP | -0.82% | $76.78 | $76.15 |
63
|
19,744 M | MDB | -1.07% | $249.05 | $246.39 |
64
|
28,515 M | ZS | -2.36% | $190.34 | $185.84 |
65
|
104,967 M | SBUX | -2.42% | $94.88 | $92.58 |
66
|
29,620 M | CSGP | -3.09% | $74.55 | $72.25 |
67
|
74,990 M | CTAS | -3.17% | $191.94 | $185.85 |
68
|
176,412 M | INTU | -3.36% | $652.14 | $630.23 |
69
|
106,887 M | ADI | -3.71% | $223.67 | $215.37 |
70
|
62,365 M | CSX | -3.84% | $33.63 | $32.34 |
71
|
49,023 M | AEP | -4.67% | $96.56 | $92.05 |
72
|
144,146 M | CMCSA | -4.68% | $39.52 | $37.67 |
73
|
23,864 M | GFS | -4.95% | $45.43 | $43.18 |
74
|
36,787 M | GEHC | -5.60% | $85.30 | $80.52 |
75
|
173,786 M | TXN | -5.66% | $201.93 | $190.51 |
76
|
55,184 M | ROP | -5.84% | $546.57 | $514.64 |
77
|
92,988 M | MELI | -8.13% | $1,996.44 | $1,834.17 |
78
|
38,624 M | ODFL | -8.23% | $197.14 | $180.91 |
79
|
175,349 M | QCOM | -8.95% | $173.34 | $157.83 |
80
|
196,891 M | LIN | -9.35% | $456.14 | $413.50 |
81
|
76,317 M | SNPS | -9.95% | $548.28 | $493.71 |
82
|
37,013 M | KHC | -10.47% | $34.19 | $30.61 |
83
|
42,783 M | KDP | -10.73% | $35.33 | $31.54 |
84
|
49,918 M | FANG | -13.03% | $196.58 | $170.96 |
85
|
205,318 M | PEP | -13.26% | $172.52 | $149.65 |
86
|
104,843 M | VRTX | -13.75% | $472.00 | $407.11 |
87
|
34,026 M | IDXX | -14.42% | $485.52 | $415.53 |
88
|
80,044 M | MDLZ | -14.83% | $70.28 | $59.86 |
89
|
203,451 M | AMD | -14.92% | $147.36 | $125.37 |
90
|
96,643 M | LRCX | -15.62% | $89.01 | $75.11 |
91
|
27,213 M | ON | -15.77% | $75.88 | $63.91 |
92
|
100,131 M | MU | -15.97% | $106.95 | $89.87 |
93
|
53,083 M | NXPI | -17.53% | $253.25 | $208.86 |
94
|
138,375 M | AMAT | -19.72% | $211.83 | $170.06 |
95
|
140,414 M | AMGN | -19.72% | $325.39 | $261.22 |
96
|
87,882 M | KLAC | -21.43% | $836.19 | $657.01 |
97
|
23,219 M | CDW | -21.47% | $221.87 | $174.23 |
98
|
205,447 M | AZN | -21.97% | $84.90 | $66.25 |
99
|
189,537 M | ADBE | -22.30% | $554.16 | $430.57 |
100
|
280,886 M | ASML | -23.04% | $928.25 | $714.36 |
101
|
22,180 M | BIIB | -24.51% | $201.63 | $152.21 |
102
|
30,969 M | MCHP | -29.07% | $81.30 | $57.67 |
103
|
134,461 M | PDD | -33.26% | $145.08 | $96.82 |
104
|
78,917 M | REGN | -38.90% | $1,175.33 | $718.15 |
Had one bought TQQQ
after market close on the first day of the current uptrend (Aug. 15 2024) and held till now - the position would be up +20.36% and be outperforming beating 75% of NASDAQ-100 holdings, including all of the Magnificent 7 besides TSLA
and AMZN
.
Investing based on the Market Signal is an objective way to reduce emotion and bias in trading. Subscribe to get the Market Signal every day.