Jan. 3rd 2025

Uptrend continues to degrade

Market Signal+3 NEUTRAL/WEAK BULLISH

The current uptrend continues to degrade. Following Christmas, the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) faced 5 straight days of losses. The Santa Claus rally did not materialize.

The Market Signal is fighting to stay above 0; it seems like the current uptrend is on its last leg, but only time will tell.

πŸ“‰
NASDAQ-100 52-week lows

PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) and Adobe Inc. (ADBE) closed at 52-week lows, while zero NASDAQ-100 holdings closed at 52-week highs.
  • A lack of new highs (see above) demonstrates a lack of strength in the market
  • A Market Signal value of +3 is a neutral to weak bullish indication, another indication of lacking strength
  • QQQ and TQQQ have given back -3.63% and -14.08% in the 11 trading days since the pullback on Dec. 18th. This is a stark contrast to the +6.82% and +21.54% returns over the 20 consecutive days of STRONG BULLISH Market Signal from Nov. 20th 2024 to Dec. 17th 2024.

On the weekly chart, QQQ appears to have found some support at $515.58 (a key level mentioned in prior posts), however, as mentioned before, if this level is not held, the uptrend will likely end.

`Weekly chart shows QQQ finding support at 515.68

πŸ“ˆ98th day of uptrend

Day πŸ“ˆ1 of current uptrend occurred on Aug. 15 2024.

  • QQQ +9.31% since start of current uptrend
  • TQQQ +20.36% since start of current uptrend
A B C D E F G
1
Market Signal Trend Count QQQ Close QQQ %chg since πŸ“ˆ1 TQQQ close TQQQ %chg since πŸ“ˆ1 Date
2
1 πŸ“ˆ1 $474.42 0.00% $68.46 0.00% Thu 8/15/24
3
3 πŸ“ˆ2 $475.02 0.13% $68.64 0.26% Fri 8/16/24
4
4 πŸ“ˆ3 $481.27 1.44% $71.30 4.15% Mon 8/19/24
5
3 πŸ“ˆ4 $480.26 1.23% $70.86 3.51% Tue 8/20/24
6
3 πŸ“ˆ5 $482.50 1.70% $71.83 4.92% Wed 8/21/24
7
7 πŸ“ˆ6 $474.85 0.09% $68.38 -0.12% Thu 8/22/24
8
8 πŸ“ˆ7 $480.00 1.18% $70.53 3.02% Fri 8/23/24
9
7 πŸ“ˆ8 $475.34 0.19% $68.46 0.00% Mon 8/26/24
10
8 πŸ“ˆ9 $476.76 0.49% $69.04 0.85% Tue 8/27/24
11
5 πŸ“ˆ10 $471.35 -0.65% $66.70 -2.57% Wed 8/28/24
12
5 πŸ“ˆ11 $470.66 -0.79% $66.35 -3.08% Thu 8/29/24
13
7 πŸ“ˆ12 $476.27 0.39% $68.61 0.22% Fri 8/30/24
14
4 πŸ“ˆ13 $461.81 -2.66% $62.35 -8.92% Tue 9/3/24
15
2 πŸ“ˆ14 $460.61 -2.91% $61.82 -9.70% Wed 9/4/24
16
2 πŸ“ˆ15 $461.04 -2.82% $62.02 -9.41% Thu 9/5/24
17
1 πŸ“ˆ16 $448.69 -5.42% $56.99 -16.75% Fri 9/6/24
18
1 πŸ“ˆ17 $454.46 -4.21% $59.11 -13.66% Mon 9/9/24
19
1 πŸ“ˆ18 $458.66 -3.32% $60.70 -11.34% Tue 9/10/24
20
1 πŸ“ˆ19 $468.62 -1.22% $64.57 -5.68% Wed 9/11/24
21
5 πŸ“ˆ20 $473.22 -0.25% $66.48 -2.89% Thu 9/12/24
22
5 πŸ“ˆ21 $475.34 0.19% $67.35 -1.62% Fri 9/13/24
23
1 πŸ“ˆ22 $473.24 -0.25% $66.45 -2.94% Mon 9/16/24
24
1 πŸ“ˆ23 $473.49 -0.20% $66.49 -2.88% Tue 9/17/24
25
3 πŸ“ˆ24 $471.44 -0.63% $65.62 -4.15% Wed 9/18/24
26
3 πŸ“ˆ25 $483.36 1.88% $70.58 3.10% Thu 9/19/24
27
7 πŸ“ˆ26 $482.44 1.69% $70.13 2.44% Fri 9/20/24
28
7 πŸ“ˆ27 $483.04 1.82% $70.65 3.20% Mon 9/23/24
29
7 πŸ“ˆ28 $485.37 2.31% $71.65 4.66% Tue 9/24/24
30
7 πŸ“ˆ29 $485.95 2.43% $71.67 4.69% Wed 9/25/24
31
7 πŸ“ˆ30 $489.47 3.17% $73.19 6.91% Thu 9/26/24
32
7 πŸ“ˆ31 $486.75 2.60% $71.93 5.07% Fri 9/27/24
33
7 πŸ“ˆ32 $488.07 2.88% $72.49 5.89% Mon 9/30/24
34
6 πŸ“ˆ33 $481.27 1.44% $69.42 1.40% Tue 10/1/24
35
6 πŸ“ˆ34 $481.95 1.59% $69.68 1.78% Wed 10/2/24
36
6 πŸ“ˆ35 $481.59 1.51% $69.52 1.55% Thu 10/3/24
37
7 πŸ“ˆ36 $487.32 2.72% $71.97 5.13% Fri 10/4/24
38
6 πŸ“ˆ37 $482.10 1.62% $69.60 1.67% Mon 10/7/24
39
7 πŸ“ˆ38 $489.30 3.14% $72.62 6.08% Tue 10/8/24
40
8 πŸ“ˆ39 $493.15 3.95% $74.37 8.63% Wed 10/9/24
41
8 πŸ“ˆ40 $492.59 3.83% $74.11 8.25% Thu 10/10/24
42
8 πŸ“ˆ41 $493.36 3.99% $74.30 8.53% Fri 10/11/24
43
8 πŸ“ˆ42 $497.50 4.86% $76.20 11.31% Mon 10/14/24
44
7 πŸ“ˆ43 $490.85 3.46% $73.16 6.87% Tue 10/15/24
45
8 πŸ“ˆ44 $490.91 3.48% $73.12 6.81% Wed 10/16/24
46
8 πŸ“ˆ45 $491.25 3.55% $73.34 7.13% Thu 10/17/24
47
7 πŸ“ˆ46 $494.47 4.23% $74.64 9.03% Fri 10/18/24
48
7 πŸ“ˆ47 $495.42 4.43% $75.05 9.63% Mon 10/21/24
49
7 πŸ“ˆ48 $495.96 4.54% $75.27 9.95% Tue 10/22/24
50
6 πŸ“ˆ49 $488.36 2.94% $71.79 4.86% Wed 10/23/24
51
6 πŸ“ˆ50 $492.32 3.77% $71.79 4.86% Thu 10/24/24
52
7 πŸ“ˆ51 $495.32 4.41% $74.74 9.17% Fri 10/25/24
53
7 πŸ“ˆ52 $495.40 4.42% $74.81 9.28% Mon 10/28/24
54
7 πŸ“ˆ53 $500.16 5.43% $76.88 12.30% Tue 10/29/24
55
7 πŸ“ˆ54 $496.47 4.65% $75.14 9.76% Wed 10/30/24
56
5 πŸ“ˆ55 $483.85 1.99% $69.45 1.45% Thu 10/31/24
57
3 πŸ“ˆ56 $487.43 2.74% $70.97 3.67% Fri 11/1/24
58
5 πŸ“ˆ57 $486.01 2.44% $70.27 2.64% Mon 11/4/24
59
7 πŸ“ˆ58 $492.21 3.75% $72.94 6.54% Tue 11/5/24
60
8 πŸ“ˆ59 $505.58 6.57% $78.86 15.19% Wed 11/6/24
61
8 πŸ“ˆ60 $513.54 8.25% $82.55 20.58% Thu 11/7/24
62
7 πŸ“ˆ61 $514.14 8.37% $82.75 20.87% Fri 11/8/24
63
8 πŸ“ˆ62 $513.84 8.31% $82.60 20.65% Mon 11/11/24
64
8 πŸ“ˆ63 $512.91 8.11% $82.15 20.00% Tue 11/12/24
65
8 πŸ“ˆ64 $512.25 7.97% $81.79 19.47% Wed 11/13/24
66
8 πŸ“ˆ65 $508.69 7.09% $80.06 16.64% Thu 11/14/24
67
5 πŸ“ˆ66 $496.57 4.67% $74.27 8.49% Fri 11/15/24
68
6 πŸ“ˆ67 $500.02 5.40% $75.77 10.68% Mon 11/18/24
69
6 πŸ“ˆ68 $503.46 6.12% $77.29 12.90% Tue 11/19/24
70
7 πŸ“ˆ69 $503.17 6.06% $77.20 12.77% Wed 11/20/24
71
7 πŸ“ˆ70 $504.98 6.44% $77.96 13.88% Thu 11/21/24
72
7 πŸ“ˆ71 $505.79 6.61% $78.25 14.30% Fri 11/22/24
73
8 πŸ“ˆ72 $506.59 6.78% $78.61 14.83% Mon 11/25/24
74
8 πŸ“ˆ73 $509.31 7.35% $79.83 16.61% Tue 11/26/24
75
7 πŸ“ˆ74 $505.30 6.51% $77.90 13.79% Wed 11/27/24
76
7 πŸ“ˆ75 $509.74 7.44% $79.89 16.70% Fri 11/29/24
77
8 πŸ“ˆ76 $515.29 8.61% $82.48 20.48% Mon 12/2/24
78
7 πŸ“ˆ77 $516.87 8.95% $83.21 21.55% Tue 12/3/24
79
8 πŸ“ˆ78 $523.26 10.29% $86.25 25.99% Wed 12/4/24
80
8 πŸ“ˆ79 $521.81 9.99% $85.54 24.95% Thu 12/5/24
81
8 πŸ“ˆ80 $526.48 10.97% $87.74 28.16% Fri 12/6/24
82
7 πŸ“ˆ81 $522.38 10.11% $85.69 25.17% Mon 12/9/24
83
7 πŸ“ˆ82 $520.60 9.73% $84.76 23.81% Tue 12/10/24
84
8 πŸ“ˆ83 $529.92 11.70% $89.29 30.43% Wed 12/11/24
85
7 πŸ“ˆ84 $526.50 10.98% $87.52 27.84% Thu 12/12/24
86
7 πŸ“ˆ85 $530.53 11.83% $89.40 30.59% Fri 12/13/24
87
7 πŸ“ˆ86 $538.17 13.44% $93.29 36.27% Mon 12/16/24
88
7 πŸ“ˆ87 $535.80 12.94% $92.04 34.44% Tue 12/17/24
89
3 πŸ“ˆ88 $516.47 8.86% $82.09 19.91% Wed 12/18/24
90
3 πŸ“ˆ89 $514.17 8.38% $80.93 18.22% Thu 12/19/24
91
4 πŸ“ˆ90 $518.66 9.33% $83.03 21.28% Fri 12/20/24
92
4 πŸ“ˆ91 $522.87 10.21% $85.06 24.25% Mon 12/23/24
93
5 πŸ“ˆ92 $529.96 11.71% $88.44 29.18% Tue 12/24/24
94
5 πŸ“ˆ93 $529.60 11.63% $88.25 28.91% Thu 12/26/24
95
4 πŸ“ˆ94 $522.56 10.15% $84.66 23.66% Fri 12/27/24
96
3 πŸ“ˆ95 $515.61 8.68% $81.26 18.70% Mon 12/30/24
97
2 πŸ“ˆ96 $511.23 7.76% $79.13 15.59% Tue 12/31/24
98
2 πŸ“ˆ97 $510.23 7.55% $78.63 14.86% Thu 1/2/25
99
3 πŸ“ˆ98 $518.58 9.31% $82.40 20.36% Fri 1/3/25

Market Signal, Trend Count, closing prices, and return (%) over current uptrend


TQQQ vs QQQ Holdings

TQQQ is outperforming 75% of QQQ holdings since day πŸ“ˆ1 of current uptrend (Aug. 15 2024).

A B C D E
1
Market Cap Symbol %Chg since πŸ“ˆ1 Close on πŸ“ˆ1 Close
2
188,115 M QQQ 9.31% $474.42 $518.58
3
117,675 M APP 309.73% $85.58 $350.65
4
83,373 M MSTR 157.45% $131.93 $339.66
5
181,991 M PLTR 155.89% $31.22 $79.89
6
1,317,537 M TSLA 91.67% $214.14 $410.44
7
102,261 M MRVL 70.46% $69.33 $118.18
8
65,179 M TEAM 70.45% $146.83 $250.27
9
45,834 M AXON 60.84% $373.69 $601.06
10
46,056 M LULU 47.41% $256.55 $378.18
11
25,930 M WBD 45.99% $7.24 $10.57
12
1,090,045 M AVGO 39.98% $166.13 $232.55
13
88,431 M CRWD 37.82% $260.49 $359.02
14
162,301 M BKNG 34.92% $3,634.67 $4,903.85
15
72,678 M DASH 34.29% $130.29 $174.96
16
376,612 M NFLX 32.84% $663.22 $881.05
17
74,706 M FTNT 32.79% $73.40 $97.47
18
78,942 M CEG 32.57% $190.39 $252.40
19
33,150 M TTWO 28.95% $146.38 $188.75
20
87,822 M PYPL 28.94% $67.94 $87.60
21
2,357,360 M AMZN 26.24% $177.59 $224.19
22
49,202 M DDOG 24.50% $116.33 $144.83
23
76,499 M MAR 24.06% $221.90 $275.28
24
113,921 M GILD 22.96% $74.34 $91.41
25
42,213 M BKR 21.61% $35.08 $42.66
26
234,425 M CSCO 21.29% $48.53 $58.86
27
60,137 M TTD 21.23% $100.50 $121.84
28
42,016 M TQQQ 20.36% $68.46 $82.40
29
2,347,701 M GOOGL 18.90% $161.30 $191.79
30
2,364,104 M GOOG 18.36% $163.17 $193.13
31
3,538,070 M NVDA 17.59% $122.86 $144.47
32
63,372 M ADSK 17.53% $250.21 $294.06
33
84,788 M ABNB 14.16% $118.88 $135.71
34
147,294 M HON 14.14% $198.46 $226.52
35
54,999 M PCAR 14.01% $92.01 $104.90
36
38,296 M XEL 13.23% $58.90 $66.69
37
254,274 M TMUS 12.58% $194.63 $219.11
38
1,526,382 M META 12.52% $537.33 $604.63
39
31,666 M DXCM 12.04% $72.36 $81.07
40
50,950 M MNST 11.49% $46.99 $52.39
41
190,661 M ISRG 11.48% $480.17 $535.30
42
50,290 M PAYX 11.01% $125.82 $139.67
43
118,851 M ADP 10.63% $263.66 $291.69
44
54,834 M CPRT 10.29% $51.60 $56.91
45
67,255 M WDAY 9.19% $231.56 $252.84
46
83,338 M CDNS 8.47% $280.12 $303.86
47
3,678,587 M AAPL 8.29% $224.72 $243.36
48
148,275 M ARM 8.16% $130.44 $141.08
49
69,520 M ORLY 7.92% $1,115.89 $1,204.22
50
41,070 M FAST 7.59% $66.63 $71.69
51
120,249 M PANW 6.77% $171.64 $183.25
52
406,869 M COST 4.47% $877.35 $916.58
53
50,892 M ROST 4.36% $147.80 $154.25
54
29,591 M ANSS 4.12% $325.00 $338.38
55
39,014 M VRSK 3.81% $266.14 $276.28
56
50,952 M CHTR 1.80% $352.01 $358.35
57
38,234 M EXC 1.47% $37.50 $38.05
58
37,871 M CTSH 1.21% $75.47 $76.38
59
3,147,557 M MSFT 0.55% $421.03 $423.35
60
38,368 M EA -0.51% $147.04 $146.29
61
88,675 M INTC -0.63% $20.69 $20.56
62
35,101 M CCEP -0.82% $76.78 $76.15
63
19,744 M MDB -1.07% $249.05 $246.39
64
28,515 M ZS -2.36% $190.34 $185.84
65
104,967 M SBUX -2.42% $94.88 $92.58
66
29,620 M CSGP -3.09% $74.55 $72.25
67
74,990 M CTAS -3.17% $191.94 $185.85
68
176,412 M INTU -3.36% $652.14 $630.23
69
106,887 M ADI -3.71% $223.67 $215.37
70
62,365 M CSX -3.84% $33.63 $32.34
71
49,023 M AEP -4.67% $96.56 $92.05
72
144,146 M CMCSA -4.68% $39.52 $37.67
73
23,864 M GFS -4.95% $45.43 $43.18
74
36,787 M GEHC -5.60% $85.30 $80.52
75
173,786 M TXN -5.66% $201.93 $190.51
76
55,184 M ROP -5.84% $546.57 $514.64
77
92,988 M MELI -8.13% $1,996.44 $1,834.17
78
38,624 M ODFL -8.23% $197.14 $180.91
79
175,349 M QCOM -8.95% $173.34 $157.83
80
196,891 M LIN -9.35% $456.14 $413.50
81
76,317 M SNPS -9.95% $548.28 $493.71
82
37,013 M KHC -10.47% $34.19 $30.61
83
42,783 M KDP -10.73% $35.33 $31.54
84
49,918 M FANG -13.03% $196.58 $170.96
85
205,318 M PEP -13.26% $172.52 $149.65
86
104,843 M VRTX -13.75% $472.00 $407.11
87
34,026 M IDXX -14.42% $485.52 $415.53
88
80,044 M MDLZ -14.83% $70.28 $59.86
89
203,451 M AMD -14.92% $147.36 $125.37
90
96,643 M LRCX -15.62% $89.01 $75.11
91
27,213 M ON -15.77% $75.88 $63.91
92
100,131 M MU -15.97% $106.95 $89.87
93
53,083 M NXPI -17.53% $253.25 $208.86
94
138,375 M AMAT -19.72% $211.83 $170.06
95
140,414 M AMGN -19.72% $325.39 $261.22
96
87,882 M KLAC -21.43% $836.19 $657.01
97
23,219 M CDW -21.47% $221.87 $174.23
98
205,447 M AZN -21.97% $84.90 $66.25
99
189,537 M ADBE -22.30% $554.16 $430.57
100
280,886 M ASML -23.04% $928.25 $714.36
101
22,180 M BIIB -24.51% $201.63 $152.21
102
30,969 M MCHP -29.07% $81.30 $57.67
103
134,461 M PDD -33.26% $145.08 $96.82
104
78,917 M REGN -38.90% $1,175.33 $718.15

πŸ’΅
Market Signal Retrospective

Had one bought TQQQ after market close on the first day of the current uptrend (Aug. 15 2024) and held till now - the position would be up +20.36% and be outperforming beating 75% of NASDAQ-100 holdings, including all of the Magnificent 7 besides TSLA and AMZN.

Investing based on the Market Signal is an objective way to reduce emotion and bias in trading. Subscribe to get the Market Signal every day.


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