Wed. Dec. 18th 2024
QQQ pummeled
Market Signal: +3
WEAK BULLISH
QQQ
and TQQQ
were down -3.61% and -10.81% respectively today. This is the largest single day loss for QQQ
since Fri. Oct. 7th 2022 (-3.81%), which occurred during a downtrend π.
The uptrend is deteriorating and may end soon. After 18 consecutive days of STRONG BULLISH
Market Signal (values >= 7), the Market Signal was +3
WEAK BULLISH
today. The Market Signal dropped from STRONG BULLISH
to WEAK BULLISH
(skipping the MODERATE BULLISH
values) in one day - this is a bearish sign.
QQQ bleeding stopped when it found support near a prior high. This level was alluded to in a prior post. If QQQ
breaks below, the uptrend will likely end.

This is a good time to know ones risk management rules, specifically when you choose to take profit, and how you will manage risk. During most prior uptrends, it has proved prudent to reduce the position as the Market Signal weakens, rather than waiting for the Market Signal to go negative and then closing the position.
Usually, during uptrends we post the NASDAQ-100 52-week highs in this section. Today, no NASDAQ-100 holdings closed at a 52-week high. However, 11 closed at a 52-week low, another bearish sign; they are listed below.
PEP $154.43 -1.10%
AMD $121.41 -2.89%
AMGN $258.78 -2.70%
PANW $188.76 -6.20%
MDLZ $60.02 -2.15%
REGN $714.62 -3.43%
CSX $32.08 -2.58%
KHC $30.30 -3.04%
MCHP $56.14 -3.69%
CSGP $70.77 -3.23%
CDW $171.49 -2.93%
BIIB $146.79 -2.56%
π89th day of uptrend
Day π1 of current uptrend occurred on Aug. 15 2024.
QQQ
+8.86% since start of current uptrendTQQQ
+19.91% since start of current uptrend
A | B | C | D | E | F | G | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
|
Market Signal | Trend Count | QQQ Close | QQQ %chg since π1 | TQQQ close | TQQQ %chg since π1 | Date |
2
|
1 | π1 | $474.42 | 0.00% | $68.46 | 0.00% | Thu 8/15/24 |
3
|
3 | π2 | $475.02 | 0.13% | $68.64 | 0.26% | Fri 8/16/24 |
4
|
4 | π3 | $481.27 | 1.44% | $71.30 | 4.15% | Mon 8/19/24 |
5
|
3 | π4 | $480.26 | 1.23% | $70.86 | 3.51% | Tue 8/20/24 |
6
|
3 | π5 | $482.50 | 1.70% | $71.83 | 4.92% | Wed 8/21/24 |
7
|
7 | π6 | $474.85 | 0.09% | $68.38 | -0.12% | Thu 8/22/24 |
8
|
8 | π7 | $480.00 | 1.18% | $70.53 | 3.02% | Fri 8/23/24 |
9
|
7 | π8 | $475.34 | 0.19% | $68.46 | 0.00% | Mon 8/26/24 |
10
|
8 | π9 | $476.76 | 0.49% | $69.04 | 0.85% | Tue 8/27/24 |
11
|
5 | π10 | $471.35 | -0.65% | $66.70 | -2.57% | Wed 8/28/24 |
12
|
5 | π11 | $470.66 | -0.79% | $66.35 | -3.08% | Thu 8/29/24 |
13
|
7 | π12 | $476.27 | 0.39% | $68.61 | 0.22% | Fri 8/30/24 |
14
|
4 | π13 | $461.81 | -2.66% | $62.35 | -8.92% | Tue 9/3/24 |
15
|
2 | π14 | $460.61 | -2.91% | $61.82 | -9.70% | Wed 9/4/24 |
16
|
2 | π15 | $461.04 | -2.82% | $62.02 | -9.41% | Thu 9/5/24 |
17
|
1 | π16 | $448.69 | -5.42% | $56.99 | -16.75% | Fri 9/6/24 |
18
|
1 | π17 | $454.46 | -4.21% | $59.11 | -13.66% | Mon 9/9/24 |
19
|
1 | π18 | $458.66 | -3.32% | $60.70 | -11.34% | Tue 9/10/24 |
20
|
1 | π19 | $468.62 | -1.22% | $64.57 | -5.68% | Wed 9/11/24 |
21
|
5 | π20 | $473.22 | -0.25% | $66.48 | -2.89% | Thu 9/12/24 |
22
|
5 | π21 | $475.34 | 0.19% | $67.35 | -1.62% | Fri 9/13/24 |
23
|
1 | π22 | $473.24 | -0.25% | $66.45 | -2.94% | Mon 9/16/24 |
24
|
1 | π23 | $473.49 | -0.20% | $66.49 | -2.88% | Tue 9/17/24 |
25
|
3 | π24 | $471.44 | -0.63% | $65.62 | -4.15% | Wed 9/18/24 |
26
|
3 | π25 | $483.36 | 1.88% | $70.58 | 3.10% | Thu 9/19/24 |
27
|
7 | π26 | $482.44 | 1.69% | $70.13 | 2.44% | Fri 9/20/24 |
28
|
7 | π27 | $483.04 | 1.82% | $70.65 | 3.20% | Mon 9/23/24 |
29
|
7 | π28 | $485.37 | 2.31% | $71.65 | 4.66% | Tue 9/24/24 |
30
|
7 | π29 | $485.95 | 2.43% | $71.67 | 4.69% | Wed 9/25/24 |
31
|
7 | π30 | $489.47 | 3.17% | $73.19 | 6.91% | Thu 9/26/24 |
32
|
7 | π31 | $486.75 | 2.60% | $71.93 | 5.07% | Fri 9/27/24 |
33
|
7 | π32 | $488.07 | 2.88% | $72.49 | 5.89% | Mon 9/30/24 |
34
|
6 | π33 | $481.27 | 1.44% | $69.42 | 1.40% | Tue 10/1/24 |
35
|
6 | π34 | $481.95 | 1.59% | $69.68 | 1.78% | Wed 10/2/24 |
36
|
6 | π35 | $481.59 | 1.51% | $69.52 | 1.55% | Thu 10/3/24 |
37
|
7 | π36 | $487.32 | 2.72% | $71.97 | 5.13% | Fri 10/4/24 |
38
|
6 | π37 | $482.10 | 1.62% | $69.60 | 1.67% | Mon 10/7/24 |
39
|
7 | π38 | $489.30 | 3.14% | $72.62 | 6.08% | Tue 10/8/24 |
40
|
8 | π39 | $493.15 | 3.95% | $74.37 | 8.63% | Wed 10/9/24 |
41
|
8 | π40 | $492.59 | 3.83% | $74.11 | 8.25% | Thu 10/10/24 |
42
|
8 | π41 | $493.36 | 3.99% | $74.30 | 8.53% | Fri 10/11/24 |
43
|
8 | π42 | $497.50 | 4.86% | $76.20 | 11.31% | Mon 10/14/24 |
44
|
7 | π43 | $490.85 | 3.46% | $73.16 | 6.87% | Tue 10/15/24 |
45
|
8 | π44 | $490.91 | 3.48% | $73.12 | 6.81% | Wed 10/16/24 |
46
|
8 | π45 | $491.25 | 3.55% | $73.34 | 7.13% | Thu 10/17/24 |
47
|
7 | π46 | $494.47 | 4.23% | $74.64 | 9.03% | Fri 10/18/24 |
48
|
7 | π47 | $495.42 | 4.43% | $75.05 | 9.63% | Mon 10/21/24 |
49
|
7 | π48 | $495.96 | 4.54% | $75.27 | 9.95% | Tue 10/22/24 |
50
|
6 | π49 | $488.36 | 2.94% | $71.79 | 4.86% | Wed 10/23/24 |
51
|
6 | π50 | $492.32 | 3.77% | $71.79 | 4.86% | Thu 10/24/24 |
52
|
7 | π51 | $495.32 | 4.41% | $74.74 | 9.17% | Fri 10/25/24 |
53
|
7 | π52 | $495.40 | 4.42% | $74.81 | 9.28% | Mon 10/28/24 |
54
|
7 | π53 | $500.16 | 5.43% | $76.88 | 12.30% | Tue 10/29/24 |
55
|
7 | π54 | $496.47 | 4.65% | $75.14 | 9.76% | Wed 10/30/24 |
56
|
5 | π55 | $483.85 | 1.99% | $69.45 | 1.45% | Thu 10/31/24 |
57
|
3 | π56 | $487.43 | 2.74% | $70.97 | 3.67% | Fri 11/1/24 |
58
|
5 | π57 | $486.01 | 2.44% | $70.27 | 2.64% | Mon 11/4/24 |
59
|
7 | π58 | $492.21 | 3.75% | $72.94 | 6.54% | Tue 11/5/24 |
60
|
8 | π59 | $505.58 | 6.57% | $78.86 | 15.19% | Wed 11/6/24 |
61
|
8 | π60 | $513.54 | 8.25% | $82.55 | 20.58% | Thu 11/7/24 |
62
|
7 | π61 | $514.14 | 8.37% | $82.75 | 20.87% | Fri 11/8/24 |
63
|
8 | π62 | $513.84 | 8.31% | $82.60 | 20.65% | Mon 11/11/24 |
64
|
8 | π63 | $512.91 | 8.11% | $82.15 | 20.00% | Tue 11/12/24 |
65
|
8 | π64 | $512.25 | 7.97% | $81.79 | 19.47% | Wed 11/13/24 |
66
|
8 | π65 | $508.69 | 7.09% | $80.06 | 16.64% | Thu 11/14/24 |
67
|
5 | π66 | $496.57 | 4.67% | $74.27 | 8.49% | Fri 11/15/24 |
68
|
6 | π67 | $500.02 | 5.40% | $75.77 | 10.68% | Mon 11/18/24 |
69
|
6 | π68 | $503.46 | 6.12% | $77.29 | 12.90% | Tue 11/19/24 |
70
|
7 | π69 | $503.17 | 6.06% | $77.20 | 12.77% | Wed 11/20/24 |
71
|
7 | π70 | $504.98 | 6.44% | $77.96 | 13.88% | Thu 11/21/24 |
72
|
7 | π71 | $505.79 | 6.61% | $78.25 | 14.30% | Fri 11/22/24 |
73
|
8 | π72 | $506.59 | 6.78% | $78.61 | 14.83% | Mon 11/25/24 |
74
|
8 | π73 | $509.31 | 7.35% | $79.83 | 16.61% | Tue 11/26/24 |
75
|
7 | π74 | $505.30 | 6.51% | $77.90 | 13.79% | Wed 11/27/24 |
76
|
7 | π75 | $509.74 | 7.44% | $79.89 | 16.70% | Fri 11/29/24 |
77
|
8 | π76 | $515.29 | 8.61% | $82.48 | 20.48% | Mon 12/2/24 |
78
|
7 | π77 | $516.87 | 8.95% | $83.21 | 21.55% | Tue 12/3/24 |
79
|
8 | π78 | $523.26 | 10.29% | $86.25 | 25.99% | Wed 12/4/24 |
80
|
8 | π79 | $521.81 | 9.99% | $85.54 | 24.95% | Thu 12/5/24 |
81
|
8 | π80 | $526.48 | 10.97% | $87.74 | 28.16% | Fri 12/6/24 |
82
|
7 | π81 | $522.38 | 10.11% | $85.69 | 25.17% | Mon 12/9/24 |
83
|
7 | π82 | $520.60 | 9.73% | $84.76 | 23.81% | Tue 12/10/24 |
84
|
8 | π83 | $529.92 | 11.70% | $89.29 | 30.43% | Wed 12/11/24 |
85
|
7 | π84 | $526.50 | 10.98% | $87.52 | 27.84% | Thu 12/12/24 |
86
|
7 | π85 | $530.53 | 11.83% | $89.40 | 30.59% | Fri 12/13/24 |
87
|
7 | π86 | $538.17 | 13.44% | $93.29 | 36.27% | Mon 12/16/24 |
88
|
7 | π87 | $535.80 | 12.94% | $92.04 | 34.44% | Tue 12/17/24 |
89
|
3 | π88 | $516.47 | 8.86% | $82.09 | 19.91% | Wed 12/18/24 |
Market Signal, Trend Count, closing prices, and return (%) over current uptrend
TQQQ vs QQQ Holdings
TQQQ
is outperforming 80% of QQQ holdings since day π1 of current uptrend (Aug. 15 2024).
Despite TQQQ
getting beat up today, if one held TQQQ
from the start of the current uptrend (Aug. 15th 2024), held till today, and sold after market close at the sight of today's Market Signal drop - they would be up +19.91% and have outperformed 80% of QQQ
holdings (including 5 of the Magnificent 7).
βοΈ In other words, there is about a 2 in 10 chance of picking NASDAQ-100 stocks that would have outperformed QQQ
from the start of current uptrend til now.
A | B | C | D | E | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
|
Market Cap | Symbol | %Chg since π1 | Close on π1 | Close |
2
|
187,349 M | QQQ | 8.86% | $474.42 | $516.47 |
3
|
105,064 M | APP | 265.82% | $85.58 | $313.07 |
4
|
1,412,844 M | TSLA | 105.53% | $214.14 | $440.13 |
5
|
65,158 M | TEAM | 70.39% | $146.83 | $250.19 |
6
|
91,099 M | MRVL | 51.85% | $69.33 | $105.28 |
7
|
26,077 M | WBD | 46.82% | $7.24 | $10.63 |
8
|
45,312 M | LULU | 45.03% | $256.55 | $372.07 |
9
|
163,609 M | BKNG | 36.01% | $3,634.67 | $4,943.35 |
10
|
1,044,434 M | AVGO | 34.61% | $166.13 | $223.62 |
11
|
380,245 M | NFLX | 34.13% | $663.22 | $889.55 |
12
|
86,007 M | CRWD | 34.05% | $260.49 | $349.18 |
13
|
51,026 M | DDOG | 29.12% | $116.33 | $150.20 |
14
|
63,143 M | TTD | 27.29% | $100.50 | $127.93 |
15
|
71,556 M | FTNT | 27.19% | $73.40 | $93.36 |
16
|
68,702 M | DASH | 26.94% | $130.29 | $165.39 |
17
|
85,667 M | PYPL | 25.77% | $67.94 | $85.45 |
18
|
77,157 M | MAR | 25.12% | $221.90 | $277.65 |
19
|
31,947 M | TTWO | 24.27% | $146.38 | $181.90 |
20
|
2,318,770 M | AMZN | 24.17% | $177.59 | $220.52 |
21
|
113,024 M | GILD | 21.99% | $74.34 | $90.69 |
22
|
41,858 M | TQQQ | 19.91% | $68.46 | $82.09 |
23
|
70,610 M | CEG | 18.58% | $190.39 | $225.76 |
24
|
229,128 M | CSCO | 18.55% | $48.53 | $57.53 |
25
|
63,107 M | ADSK | 17.03% | $250.21 | $292.83 |
26
|
2,306,204 M | GOOGL | 16.80% | $161.30 | $188.40 |
27
|
2,327,626 M | GOOG | 16.53% | $163.17 | $190.15 |
28
|
71,535 M | WDAY | 16.14% | $231.56 | $268.93 |
29
|
147,515 M | HON | 14.31% | $198.46 | $226.86 |
30
|
56,819 M | CPRT | 14.28% | $51.60 | $58.97 |
31
|
39,621 M | BKR | 14.14% | $35.08 | $40.04 |
32
|
56,509 M | PCAR | 13.44% | $95.01 | $107.78 |
33
|
256,108 M | TMUS | 13.39% | $194.63 | $220.69 |
34
|
38,130 M | XEL | 12.73% | $58.90 | $66.40 |
35
|
42,766 M | FAST | 12.04% | $66.63 | $74.65 |
36
|
1,507,599 M | META | 11.14% | $537.33 | $597.19 |
37
|
3,749,480 M | AAPL | 10.38% | $224.72 | $248.05 |
38
|
123,864 M | PANW | 9.98% | $171.64 | $188.76 |
39
|
428,289 M | COST | 9.96% | $877.35 | $964.74 |
40
|
70,728 M | ORLY | 9.79% | $1,115.89 | $1,225.14 |
41
|
50,124 M | MNST | 9.68% | $46.99 | $51.54 |
42
|
187,518 M | ISRG | 9.64% | $480.17 | $526.47 |
43
|
117,551 M | ADP | 9.42% | $263.66 | $288.50 |
44
|
48,896 M | PAYX | 7.98% | $125.82 | $135.86 |
45
|
82,619 M | CDNS | 7.54% | $280.12 | $301.24 |
46
|
79,683 M | ABNB | 7.28% | $118.88 | $127.54 |
47
|
82,430 M | CTAS | 6.49% | $191.94 | $204.39 |
48
|
3,157,006 M | NVDA | 4.92% | $122.86 | $128.91 |
49
|
143,525 M | ARM | 4.69% | $130.44 | $136.56 |
50
|
21,257 M | ILMN | 4.06% | $128.80 | $134.03 |
51
|
29,396 M | DXCM | 4.01% | $72.36 | $75.26 |
52
|
3,251,943 M | MSFT | 3.89% | $421.03 | $437.39 |
53
|
38,803 M | CTSH | 3.70% | $75.47 | $78.26 |
54
|
38,912 M | VRSK | 3.54% | $266.14 | $275.56 |
55
|
29,182 M | ANSS | 2.68% | $325.00 | $333.70 |
56
|
39,320 M | EA | 1.96% | $147.04 | $149.92 |
57
|
50,939 M | CHTR | 1.78% | $352.01 | $358.26 |
58
|
18,816 M | MDB | 1.45% | $249.05 | $252.67 |
59
|
49,027 M | ROST | 0.54% | $147.80 | $148.60 |
60
|
181,893 M | INTU | -0.36% | $652.14 | $649.81 |
61
|
34,797 M | CCEP | -1.68% | $76.78 | $75.49 |
62
|
28,492 M | ZS | -2.44% | $190.34 | $185.69 |
63
|
36,737 M | EXC | -2.51% | $37.50 | $36.56 |
64
|
40,942 M | ODFL | -2.72% | $197.14 | $191.77 |
65
|
115,749 M | MU | -2.85% | $106.95 | $103.90 |
66
|
56,480 M | ROP | -3.63% | $546.57 | $526.72 |
67
|
144,873 M | CMCSA | -4.20% | $39.52 | $37.86 |
68
|
61,864 M | CSX | -4.61% | $33.63 | $32.08 |
69
|
29,013 M | CSGP | -5.07% | $74.55 | $70.77 |
70
|
115,244 M | VRTX | -5.19% | $472.00 | $447.50 |
71
|
101,929 M | SBUX | -5.25% | $94.88 | $89.90 |
72
|
48,416 M | AEP | -5.85% | $96.56 | $90.91 |
73
|
23,427 M | GFS | -6.69% | $45.43 | $42.39 |
74
|
83,241 M | INTC | -6.72% | $20.69 | $19.30 |
75
|
103,116 M | ADI | -7.11% | $223.67 | $207.77 |
76
|
201,067 M | LIN | -7.43% | $456.14 | $422.27 |
77
|
44,125 M | KDP | -7.93% | $35.33 | $32.53 |
78
|
168,760 M | TXN | -8.38% | $201.93 | $185.00 |
79
|
35,220 M | GEHC | -9.62% | $85.30 | $77.09 |
80
|
76,198 M | SNPS | -9.82% | $548.28 | $494.43 |
81
|
211,876 M | PEP | -10.49% | $172.52 | $154.43 |
82
|
36,638 M | KHC | -11.38% | $34.19 | $30.30 |
83
|
170,039 M | QCOM | -11.71% | $173.34 | $153.05 |
84
|
87,016 M | MELI | -14.03% | $1,996.44 | $1,716.38 |
85
|
27,647 M | ON | -14.43% | $75.88 | $64.93 |
86
|
80,258 M | MDLZ | -14.60% | $70.28 | $60.02 |
87
|
33,635 M | IDXX | -15.40% | $485.52 | $410.76 |
88
|
96,759 M | LRCX | -15.52% | $89.01 | $75.20 |
89
|
53,446 M | NXPI | -16.96% | $253.25 | $210.29 |
90
|
197,025 M | AMD | -17.61% | $147.36 | $121.41 |
91
|
194,265 M | ADBE | -20.36% | $554.16 | $441.31 |
92
|
139,103 M | AMGN | -20.47% | $325.39 | $258.78 |
93
|
45,574 M | FANG | -20.60% | $196.58 | $156.08 |
94
|
134,624 M | AMAT | -21.89% | $211.83 | $165.45 |
95
|
282,904 M | ASML | -22.49% | $928.25 | $719.49 |
96
|
22,853 M | CDW | -22.71% | $221.87 | $171.49 |
97
|
200,425 M | AZN | -23.86% | $84.90 | $64.64 |
98
|
84,372 M | KLAC | -24.57% | $836.19 | $630.77 |
99
|
21,390 M | BIIB | -27.20% | $201.63 | $146.79 |
100
|
140,752 M | PDD | -30.14% | $145.08 | $101.35 |
101
|
30,148 M | MCHP | -30.95% | $81.30 | $56.14 |
102
|
78,529 M | REGN | -39.20% | $1,175.33 | $714.62 |
103
|
18,873 M | SMCI | -48.57% | $62.67 | $32.23 |
104
|
14,762 M | MRNA | -55.71% | $86.62 | $38.36 |