📈+53.64% return over 111 day uptrend
💡
Raincheck Fund's strategy of "Long
This post examines a past uptrend for ways to achieve returns greater than those of simply buying and holding.
TQQQ during uptrends, and in cash during downtrends" is just one implementation of an automated trading strategy using Raincheck Fund's Market Signal. This post examines a past uptrend for ways to achieve returns greater than those of simply buying and holding.
Returns
Th uptrend began on Nov. 2 2023 and ended on Apr. 15 2024, after 111 consecutive days of positive Market Signal values.
- Buying and holding
TQQQfor the duration of the uptrend returned +53.64% - Uptrend's peak occurred on Mar. 1 for +73.91% return
Exit Opportunities
The histogram below takes the closing prices for the 112 trading days from Nov. 2 2023 to Apr. 15 2024, and groups them by percentage return since trend start (in buckets of 10%) as a way to visualize how frequently profitable exit opportunities occurred.
For a TQQQ position opened after market close on the first day of the uptrend, the following exit opportunities occurred:
- Zero days with negative return since trend start
- 97 days (or 86.60% of the uptrend) closed having greater than +20% return since trend start
- 31 days closed having +60% to +70% return since trend start
- 29 days closed having +50% to +60% return since trend start
- 16 days closed having +20% to +40% return since trend start
Sharpe Ratio
Annualized Sharpe Ratio: 2.34
- Average Daily Return: 0.4267% (0.00427)
- Standard Deviation of Daily Returns: 2.82% (0.02816)
- Daily Sharpe Ratio: 0.1474
Sortino Ratio
Annualized Sortino Ratio: 3.94
- Average Daily Return: 0.4267% (0.00427)
- Downside Deviation: 1.673% (0.01673)
- Daily Sortino Ratio: 0.248
📈111 day uptrend
The table below includes the annotated QQQ daily chart over the course of this uptrend, as well as the returns of QQQ and TQQQ after market close each day.
| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
Market Signal | Trend Count | QQQ Close | QQQ %chg since 📈1 | TQQQ close | TQQQ %chg since 📈1 | Date |
|
2
|
1 | 📈1 | $363.44 | 0.00% | $36.30 | 0.00% | Thu 11/2/23 |
|
3
|
1 | 📈2 | $367.71 | 1.17% | $37.58 | 3.53% | Fri 11/3/23 |
|
4
|
1 | 📈3 | $369.21 | 1.59% | $38.01 | 4.71% | Mon 11/6/23 |
|
5
|
1 | 📈4 | $372.70 | 2.55% | $39.08 | 7.66% | Tue 11/7/23 |
|
6
|
1 | 📈5 | $372.94 | 2.61% | $39.15 | 7.85% | Wed 11/8/23 |
|
7
|
5 | 📈6 | $370.07 | 1.82% | $38.22 | 5.29% | Thu 11/9/23 |
|
8
|
6 | 📈7 | $378.39 | 4.11% | $40.77 | 12.31% | Fri 11/10/23 |
|
9
|
5 | 📈8 | $377.21 | 3.79% | $40.40 | 11.29% | Mon 11/13/23 |
|
10
|
8 | 📈9 | $385.33 | 6.02% | $42.94 | 18.29% | Tue 11/14/23 |
|
11
|
7 | 📈10 | $385.62 | 6.10% | $43.06 | 18.62% | Wed 11/15/23 |
|
12
|
7 | 📈11 | $385.95 | 6.19% | $43.13 | 18.82% | Thu 11/16/23 |
|
13
|
7 | 📈12 | $386.04 | 6.22% | $43.16 | 18.90% | Fri 11/17/23 |
|
14
|
8 | 📈13 | $390.74 | 7.51% | $44.70 | 23.14% | Mon 11/20/23 |
|
15
|
7 | 📈14 | $388.47 | 6.89% | $43.89 | 20.91% | Tue 11/21/23 |
|
16
|
8 | 📈15 | $390.06 | 7.32% | $44.40 | 22.31% | Wed 11/22/23 |
|
17
|
8 | 📈16 | $389.51 | 7.17% | $44.18 | 21.71% | Fri 11/24/23 |
|
18
|
7 | 📈17 | $389.17 | 7.08% | $44.05 | 21.35% | Mon 11/27/23 |
|
19
|
7 | 📈18 | $390.19 | 7.36% | $44.40 | 22.31% | Tue 11/28/23 |
|
20
|
9 | 📈19 | $389.81 | 7.26% | $44.24 | 21.87% | Wed 11/29/23 |
|
21
|
6 | 📈20 | $388.83 | 6.99% | $43.87 | 20.85% | Thu 11/30/23 |
|
22
|
7 | 📈21 | $389.94 | 7.29% | $44.24 | 21.87% | Fri 12/1/23 |
|
23
|
6 | 📈22 | $386.32 | 6.30% | $42.98 | 18.40% | Mon 12/4/23 |
|
24
|
6 | 📈23 | $387.29 | 6.56% | $43.29 | 19.26% | Tue 12/5/23 |
|
25
|
6 | 📈24 | $385.05 | 5.95% | $42.52 | 17.13% | Wed 12/6/23 |
|
26
|
7 | 📈25 | $390.43 | 7.43% | $44.30 | 22.04% | Thu 12/7/23 |
|
27
|
7 | 📈26 | $392.17 | 7.91% | $44.83 | 23.50% | Fri 12/8/23 |
|
28
|
7 | 📈27 | $395.52 | 8.83% | $45.97 | 26.64% | Mon 12/11/23 |
|
29
|
8 | 📈28 | $398.67 | 9.69% | $47.08 | 29.70% | Tue 12/12/23 |
|
30
|
9 | 📈29 | $403.74 | 11.09% | $48.74 | 34.27% | Wed 12/13/23 |
|
31
|
8 | 📈30 | $403.39 | 10.99% | $48.66 | 34.05% | Thu 12/14/23 |
|
32
|
8 | 📈31 | $405.34 | 11.53% | $49.24 | 35.65% | Fri 12/15/23 |
|
33
|
8 | 📈32 | $407.08 | 12.01% | $50.27 | 38.48% | Mon 12/18/23 |
|
34
|
8 | 📈33 | $409.16 | 12.58% | $51.02 | 40.55% | Tue 12/19/23 |
|
35
|
7 | 📈34 | $403.08 | 10.91% | $48.54 | 33.72% | Wed 12/20/23 |
|
36
|
8 | 📈35 | $407.77 | 12.20% | $50.15 | 38.15% | Thu 12/21/23 |
|
37
|
8 | 📈36 | $408.38 | 12.37% | $50.35 | 38.71% | Fri 12/22/23 |
|
38
|
9 | 📈37 | $410.88 | 13.05% | $51.27 | 41.24% | Tue 12/26/23 |
|
39
|
8 | 📈38 | $411.50 | 13.22% | $51.54 | 41.98% | Wed 12/27/23 |
|
40
|
8 | 📈39 | $411.30 | 13.17% | $51.41 | 41.63% | Thu 12/28/23 |
|
41
|
8 | 📈40 | $409.52 | 12.68% | $50.70 | 39.67% | Fri 12/29/23 |
|
42
|
6 | 📈41 | $402.59 | 10.77% | $48.13 | 32.59% | Tue 1/2/24 |
|
43
|
6 | 📈42 | $398.33 | 9.60% | $46.59 | 28.35% | Wed 1/3/24 |
|
44
|
5 | 📈43 | $396.28 | 9.04% | $45.81 | 26.20% | Thu 1/4/24 |
|
45
|
5 | 📈44 | $396.75 | 9.17% | $45.98 | 26.67% | Fri 1/5/24 |
|
46
|
6 | 📈45 | $404.95 | 11.42% | $48.75 | 34.30% | Mon 1/8/24 |
|
47
|
7 | 📈46 | $405.75 | 11.64% | $49.07 | 35.18% | Tue 1/9/24 |
|
48
|
8 | 📈47 | $408.50 | 12.40% | $50.04 | 37.85% | Wed 1/10/24 |
|
49
|
8 | 📈48 | $409.35 | 12.63% | $50.28 | 38.51% | Thu 1/11/24 |
|
50
|
8 | 📈49 | $409.56 | 12.69% | $50.34 | 38.68% | Fri 1/12/24 |
|
51
|
8 | 📈50 | $409.52 | 12.68% | $50.31 | 38.60% | Tue 1/16/24 |
|
52
|
7 | 📈51 | $407.21 | 12.04% | $49.44 | 36.20% | Wed 1/17/24 |
|
53
|
8 | 📈52 | $412.99 | 13.63% | $51.56 | 42.04% | Thu 1/18/24 |
|
54
|
8 | 📈53 | $421.18 | 15.89% | $54.54 | 50.25% | Fri 1/19/24 |
|
55
|
8 | 📈54 | $421.73 | 16.04% | $54.76 | 50.85% | Mon 1/22/24 |
|
56
|
8 | 📈55 | $423.48 | 16.52% | $55.41 | 52.64% | Tue 1/23/24 |
|
57
|
8 | 📈56 | $425.83 | 17.17% | $56.32 | 55.15% | Wed 1/24/24 |
|
58
|
8 | 📈57 | $426.35 | 17.31% | $56.48 | 55.59% | Thu 1/25/24 |
|
59
|
8 | 📈58 | $423.81 | 16.61% | $55.44 | 52.73% | Fri 1/26/24 |
|
60
|
8 | 📈59 | $428.15 | 17.80% | $57.07 | 57.22% | Mon 1/29/24 |
|
61
|
8 | 📈60 | $425.30 | 17.02% | $55.93 | 54.08% | Tue 1/30/24 |
|
62
|
6 | 📈61 | $416.97 | 14.73% | $52.64 | 45.01% | Wed 1/31/24 |
|
63
|
7 | 📈62 | $421.88 | 16.08% | $54.50 | 50.14% | Thu 2/1/24 |
|
64
|
9 | 📈63 | $429.01 | 18.04% | $57.24 | 57.69% | Fri 2/2/24 |
|
65
|
8 | 📈64 | $428.45 | 17.89% | $56.95 | 56.89% | Mon 2/5/24 |
|
66
|
7 | 📈65 | $427.59 | 17.65% | $56.62 | 55.98% | Tue 2/6/24 |
|
67
|
8 | 📈66 | $431.99 | 18.86% | $58.31 | 60.63% | Wed 2/7/24 |
|
68
|
8 | 📈67 | $432.79 | 19.08% | $58.55 | 61.29% | Thu 2/8/24 |
|
69
|
8 | 📈68 | $437.05 | 20.25% | $60.27 | 66.03% | Fri 2/9/24 |
|
70
|
7 | 📈69 | $435.34 | 19.78% | $59.56 | 64.08% | Mon 2/12/24 |
|
71
|
6 | 📈70 | $428.55 | 17.91% | $56.74 | 56.31% | Tue 2/13/24 |
|
72
|
8 | 📈71 | $433.22 | 19.20% | $58.54 | 61.27% | Wed 2/14/24 |
|
73
|
8 | 📈72 | $434.51 | 19.55% | $59.03 | 62.62% | Thu 2/15/24 |
|
74
|
6 | 📈73 | $430.57 | 18.47% | $57.41 | 58.15% | Fri 2/16/24 |
|
75
|
6 | 📈74 | $427.32 | 17.58% | $56.08 | 54.49% | Tue 2/20/24 |
|
76
|
6 | 📈75 | $425.61 | 17.11% | $55.38 | 52.56% | Wed 2/21/24 |
|
77
|
8 | 📈76 | $438.07 | 20.53% | $60.17 | 65.76% | Thu 2/22/24 |
|
78
|
8 | 📈77 | $436.78 | 20.18% | $59.62 | 64.24% | Fri 2/23/24 |
|
79
|
8 | 📈78 | $436.55 | 20.12% | $59.54 | 64.02% | Mon 2/26/24 |
|
80
|
8 | 📈79 | $437.60 | 20.41% | $59.91 | 65.04% | Tue 2/27/24 |
|
81
|
7 | 📈80 | $435.27 | 19.76% | $58.94 | 62.37% | Wed 2/28/24 |
|
82
|
7 | 📈81 | $439.00 | 20.79% | $60.36 | 66.28% | Thu 2/29/24 |
|
83
|
8 | 📈82 | $445.61 | 22.61% | $63.13 | 73.91% | Fri 3/1/24 |
|
84
|
7 | 📈83 | $444.02 | 22.17% | $62.38 | 71.85% | Mon 3/4/24 |
|
85
|
6 | 📈84 | $436.05 | 19.98% | $59.04 | 62.64% | Tue 3/5/24 |
|
86
|
8 | 📈85 | $438.79 | 20.73% | $60.13 | 65.65% | Wed 3/6/24 |
|
87
|
8 | 📈86 | $445.45 | 22.56% | $62.81 | 73.03% | Thu 3/7/24 |
|
88
|
6 | 📈87 | $439.02 | 20.80% | $60.06 | 65.45% | Fri 3/8/24 |
|
89
|
6 | 📈88 | $437.39 | 20.35% | $59.36 | 63.53% | Mon 3/11/24 |
|
90
|
7 | 📈89 | $443.66 | 22.07% | $61.88 | 70.47% | Tue 3/12/24 |
|
91
|
6 | 📈90 | $440.25 | 21.13% | $60.44 | 66.50% | Wed 3/13/24 |
|
92
|
6 | 📈91 | $439.14 | 20.83% | $59.95 | 65.15% | Thu 3/14/24 |
|
93
|
5 | 📈92 | $433.92 | 19.39% | $57.76 | 59.12% | Fri 3/15/24 |
|
94
|
6 | 📈93 | $437.48 | 20.37% | $59.39 | 63.61% | Mon 3/18/24 |
|
95
|
6 | 📈94 | $438.57 | 20.67% | $59.80 | 64.74% | Tue 3/19/24 |
|
96
|
8 | 📈95 | $443.77 | 22.10% | $61.70 | 69.97% | Wed 3/20/24 |
|
97
|
8 | 📈96 | $445.87 | 22.68% | $62.50 | 72.18% | Thu 3/21/24 |
|
98
|
7 | 📈97 | $446.38 | 22.82% | $62.63 | 72.53% | Fri 3/22/24 |
|
99
|
7 | 📈98 | $444.76 | 22.38% | $61.99 | 70.77% | Mon 3/25/24 |
|
100
|
7 | 📈99 | $443.32 | 21.98% | $61.41 | 69.17% | Tue 3/26/24 |
|
101
|
7 | 📈100 | $444.83 | 22.39% | $61.95 | 70.66% | Wed 3/27/24 |
|
102
|
7 | 📈101 | $444.01 | 22.17% | $61.56 | 69.59% | Thu 3/28/24 |
|
103
|
7 | 📈102 | $444.95 | 22.43% | $61.94 | 70.63% | Mon 4/1/24 |
|
104
|
6 | 📈103 | $441.11 | 21.37% | $60.28 | 66.06% | Tue 4/2/24 |
|
105
|
6 | 📈104 | $442.10 | 21.64% | $60.68 | 67.16% | Wed 4/3/24 |
|
106
|
4 | 📈105 | $435.34 | 19.78% | $57.82 | 59.28% | Thu 4/4/24 |
|
107
|
5 | 📈106 | $440.47 | 21.19% | $59.86 | 64.90% | Fri 4/5/24 |
|
108
|
5 | 📈107 | $440.60 | 21.23% | $59.90 | 65.01% | Mon 4/8/24 |
|
109
|
7 | 📈108 | $442.23 | 21.68% | $60.52 | 66.72% | Tue 4/9/24 |
|
110
|
4 | 📈109 | $438.37 | 20.62% | $58.93 | 62.34% | Wed 4/10/24 |
|
111
|
7 | 📈110 | $445.37 | 22.54% | $61.70 | 69.97% | Thu 4/11/24 |
|
112
|
0 | 📈111 | $438.27 | 20.59% | $58.72 | 61.76% | Fri 4/12/24 |
|
113
|
-2 | 📉1 | $431.06 | 18.61% | $55.77 | 53.64% | Mon 4/15/24 |
Capital Preservation
Toward the end of this uptrend, the Market Signal showed clear signs that the uptrend was weakening, offering an opportunity to get out for higher returns than waiting for the uptrend to end.
- (Mar. 20 - Apr 1) 8 straight days of
STRONG BULLISHMarket Signal - (Apr. 2 - Apr. 10) Uptrend degrades, 6 of 7 days with
MODERATE BULLISHMarket Signal - (Apr. 11 - Apr. 12) Market Signal drops 7 points in one day, falling from
STRONG BULLISHtoNEUTRAL - (Apr. 15) Market Signal goes negative, uptrend ends, downtrend begins 📉
After a strong run, the Market Signal degrades to MODERATE BULLISH values, including two 4's (the lowest value since start of uptrend, and on the cusp of WEAK sentiment range). This was a warning sign, and an opportunity to take some money off the table.
On Apr. 12 the Market Signal drops precipitously, falling to from +7 to 0 in a single day, a very bearish sign.
- Had one recognized this sign and closed their position on Apr. 12, they would have got out for +61.76%.
- The uptrend ended the next trading day, bringing profit down to +53.64%.
Heeding this warning would have preserved an incremental +8.12% in profit. Getting out on any of the days when the uptrend degraded to MODERATE BULLISH values offered similar (sometimes greater) savings.